Research News: How to predict forest fire: a new method may be useful

Definition of forest fire prediction: with investigation and determination of some natural and human factors, scientific technologies and methods are used to predict and predict the possibility of forest fire, potential fire behavior, the difficulty of controlling forest fire, and the loss caused by the forest fire.


The stable factors in forest fire prediction include: climate, terrain, soil conditions, forest composition, and stand structural characteristics. The unstable factors in forest fire prediction include moisture content of combustibles, fire source, wind, air temperature, air humidity, precipitation, continuous drought days, underground water evaporation, lightning activity level, etc. Therefore, the forest fire prediction model is particularly important.


Karimi has established a real-time forest fire early warning system through research. the vegetation moisture stresses and greenness were considered using six indexes of NDVI, MSI, WDVI, OSAVI, GVMI, and NDWI in the natural fire area of training category on the day before fire occurrence and a long period of 15 years, and the risk threshold of the parameters was considered in addition to selecting the best spectral index of vegetation. Finally, the model output was validated for fire occurrences of the test category. The results showed the possibility of prediction of fire site before the occurrence of fire with more than 80 percent accuracy.


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