The impact of fluctuating exchange rates and customs rates on the economic sustainability of solar energy business in Lebanon

Ahmad Hamdan, Manal Yunis, Mahmoud Arayssi, Khodr Fakih

Article ID: 9811
Vol 9, Issue 1, 2025


Abstract


Since the beginning of 2020, Lebanon has been facing a severe economic crisis, soaring inflation and currency collapse; yet, there has been a remarkable turnout towards solar energy. This research explores the evolution of the exchange and customs-exchange rate during the crisis, and the impact on the economic sustainability of solar energy business. The primary objective is to examine the economic sustainability of the solar energy business through a thorough analysis of the interplay of factors such as exchange rate, customs exchange rate, market value and profitability of the business and the impact of these rates on such economic metrics. The investigation involves a quantitative analysis of data collected from 10 companies in Beirut/Lebanon on a quarterly basis from 2020 till 2023. To ensure statistical rigor, certain variables were log-transformed, and data was processed in SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Sciences), performing correlation tests, hierarchal regression, mediation, and variation by time analyses. The results of the study indicate that the solar energy business excelled performance, taking into consideration other different factors like lack of electricity, and showed responsiveness to market dynamics. The business exhibits stability and independence in certain aspects, such as profitability, attributed to strategic dollarization and effective cost management. Correlation analysis showed strong relationships between rates and costs, profits, and project market values in Lebanese Lira, yet weak or insignificant correlations for these metrics in US dollars. Thus, dollarization strategies mitigated currency volatility impacts. Mediation analysis revealed that exchange rate plays a dominant role over customs exchange rate, significantly impacting project values in US dollars. Profitability analysis highlighted stable trends, indicating robust adaptability, strategic pricing, and sustainable growth despite fluctuating exchange rates. Analysis of profit margins and return on investment indicates a consistently positive trajectory, reflecting stability that thus fosters confidence among investors and stakeholders. Overall, the insights provided highlight the resilience of the business during the crisis, shedding light on its economic sustainability.

Keywords


economic sustainability; solar energy; exchange rate; customs; profitability

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd9811

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