Old-new enemy on the horizon? New factors for measuring inflation in Visegrad countries consumer baskets

Zoltán Sipiczki, Máté Bence Kralovics, Tibor Tatay, József Varga

Article ID: 9754
Vol 9, Issue 1, 2025

VIEWS - 64 (Abstract)

Abstract


The impact of inflation on the economy cannot be ignored as it can affect it either positively or negatively. This is because inflation has a broad impact on the macroeconomy, such as economic growth, competitiveness and the distribution of wealth. Therefore, the way in which it is measured also requires particular attention. Our hypothesis is that the weights of the consumer baskets measuring inflation in the Central European countries (Visegrad countries: Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Hungary) change dynamically under the influence of modern causes of inflation and we assume that the composition of the inflation baskets moves together due to the similar economic environment. The Visegrad countries (V4), consisting of Poland, Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia, were selected for this study due to their unique position as a loose economic and political alliance within the European Union. While geographically close, these countries have different economic structures and policy responses, making them an interesting case for comparative analysis. Despite their proximity, it cannot be assumed that inflationary trends will develop similarly across these nations. This underexplored region presents an opportunity to examine how diverse macroeco-nomic factors shape inflation, adding valuable insights to the existing literature. In this study, we do not focus on comparing overall inflation trends between countries, but rather on examining the trends in the changes within the inflation baskets. The aim is to analyze how the composition of goods and services contributing to inflation shifts over time in each country, rather than simply looking at inflation rates. This approach allows us to explore deeper insights into the specific components driving inflationary pressures in the Visegrad countries, highlighting how the importance of certain goods and services evolves within the inflation basket across different economic environments. The weights of the consumer baskets measuring inflation are taken from the Inter-national Monetary Fund 2012–2022 data. We used the Kruskal-Wallis test to determine whether there are statistically significant differences between countries’ consumer basket weights. Our results suggest that the inflation baskets of the four countries do not move significantly together, so there are significant differences in consumption patterns across nations regardless of geographical proximity. Also, contrary to our preliminary expectations, global megatrends such as demographic change, digitalisation and climate change have not yet had a significant impact on the weightings in the consumption baskets of the V4 countries. Therefore, these will require increased attention and preparation in the near future, as even if prices remain unchanged, measured inflation could change significantly across countries as weights shift.

Keywords


inflation; classical causes of inflation; modern causes of inflation; errors in inflation measurement

Full Text:

PDF


References


Abbasov, J., & Karimov, K. (2020). Households survey and inflation expectation. Economics & Sociology, 13(2), 210-227.

Ando, A. & Modigliani, F. (1963). The “Life Cycle” Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests. Date of download: 2022.11.03.

Arora, G., Feng, H., Anderson, C. J., & Hennessy, D. A. (2020). Evidence of climate change impacts on crop comparative advantage and land use. Agricultural Economics, 51(2), 221-236.

Auer, R. A., Levchenko, A. A., & Sauré, P. (2019). International inflation spillovers through input linkages. Review of Eco-nomics and Statistics, 101(3), 507-521.

Balogh, A. (2021). What causes inflation? - The relationship between central bank policies and inflation. Mi okoz inflációt? – A jegybanki politikák és az infláció kapcsolata. Download date: 2022.11.10. https://hitelintezetiszemle.mnb.hu/letoltes/hsz-20-4.pdf#page=148

Bánfi, T. (1977). “ The origin of inflation.” (Az infláció eredetéről) Pénzügyi Szemle 1977/3.

Bareith, T., & Fertő, I. (2023). Stabilizálhatja-e a monetáris politika az élelmiszer-inflációt?. STATISZTIKAI SZEMLE, 101(4), 354-380.

Coeuré, B. (2018). Monetary policy and climate change. Date of download: 2022.11.01. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2018/html/ecb.sp181108.en.html

Csiszárik-Kocsir, Á., Garai-Fodor, M., & Varga, J. (2021). What has become important during the pandemic?‒reassessing preferences and purchasing habits as an aftermath of the coronavirus epidemic through the eyes of different generations. Acta Polytechnica Hungarica, 18(11), 49-74.

Dong, W. – Fudurich, J. – Suchanek, L. (2017). Digital Transformation in the Service Sector: Insights from Consultations with Firms in Wholesale, Retail and Logistics. Date of download: 2022.11.01. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/san2017-19.pdf

European Central Bank. (2022). What is inflation? Download date: 2022.10.04. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/educational/hicp/html/index.hu.html

Eurostat (2023): Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) [PRC_HICP_MANR__custom_6926632] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/PRC_HICP_MANR__custom_6926632/default/table?lang=en,

Food Foundation. (2023). Broken Plate report; https://foodfoundation.org.uk/publication/broken-plate-2023

Frain, J. C. (2004). Inflation and money growth: Evidence from a multi-country data-set. Vol. XX, No. XX, Issue, Year.

Friedman, M. (1986). Inflation, unemployment, monetarism; Selected papers, (Infláció, munkanélküliség, monetarizmus);, Közgazdasági és Jogi Könyvkiadó, 1986.

Gazdag, L. (2001). From the Keynes Galaxy to the Friedman Galaxy (A Keynes-galaxistól a Friedman-galaxisig.) Gazdaság & Társadalom folyóirat 2001/1-4,

Gelencsér, M., Szabó-Szentgróti, G., Kőmüves, Z., & Hollósy-Vadász, G. (2023). The Holistic Model of Labour Retention: The Impact of Workplace Wellbeing Factors on Employee Retention. Administrative Sciences, 13(5), 121–146. http://doi.org/10.3390/admsci13050121

Goodhart, C. & Pradhan, M. (2017). Demographics will reverse three multidecade global trends. Date of download: 2022.11.20. http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/84208/1/Goodhart_Demographics%20will%20reverse_2017.pdf

Guerrieri, L. – Gust, C. – L´opez-Salido, D. (2008). International Competition and Inflation: A New Keynesian Perspective. Date of download: 2022.10.10. https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2008/918/ifdp918.pdf

Hajnal, M. & Várhegyi Judit (2016). Infláció. Date of download: 2022.10.16. https://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/mnb-oktatasi-fuzetek-inflacio-2016majus.pdf

IMF (2023) database, https://data.imf.org/?sk=4ffb52b2-3653-409a-b471-d47b46d904b5&sid=1485878810680 Letöltve 2023.02.01

Lamanda, G., & Tamásné Vőneki, Z. (2024). Is ESG disclosure associated with bank performance? Evidence from the Visegrad Four countries. Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, 35(1), 201-219.

Markantonis, D., Sargentis, G. F., Dimitriadis, P., Iliopoulou, T., Siganou, A., Moraiti, K., ... & Koutsoyiannis, D. (2023). Stochastic Evaluation of the Investment Risk by the Scale of Water Infrastructures—Case Study: The Municipality of West Mani (Greece). World, 4(1), 1-20.

Marton, Á. (2012). Inflation and consumer prices in Hungary after World War II (Infláció, fogyasztói árak Magyarországon a második világháború után) II. (1968—2011). Date of download: 2022.11.03. https://www.ksh.hu/statszemle_archive/2012/2012_06/2012_06_489.pdf

Matolcsy, Gy. – Nagy, M. – Palotai, D. – Virág B. (2020). Inflation in the digital age - Measuring and distorting inflation in the 21st century. ( Infláció a digitális korban – Az infláció mérése és torzításai a 21. században.) Date of download: 2022.11.10. http://real.mtak.hu/107870/1/hsz-19-1-t1-matolcsy-nagy-palotai-virag.pdf

Melo‐Velandia, L. F., Orozco‐Vanegas, C. A., & Parra‐Amado, D. (2022). Extreme weather events and high Colombian food prices: A non‐stationary extreme value approach 1. Agricultural Economics, 53(S1), 21-40.

Mishkin, F. (2020). Macroeconomics; Economic policy and practice (Alinea Press, 2020, 153, Milton Friedman és Anna Schwartz, Monetary trends in the United States and the United Kingdom: Their relation to income, prices and interest rates, 1867-1975, Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Nagy, B., Gabor, M. R., Bacoș, I. B., Kabil, M., Zhu, K., & Dávid, L. D. (2023). Google and Apple mobility data as predictors for European tourism during the COVID-19 pandemic: A neural network approach. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 18(2), 419-459.

Nagy, É. – Tengely V. (2018). The external and domestic drivers of inflation: the case study of Hungary. Date of download: 2022.11.01.

Picardo, E. (2022). How Inflation and Unemployment Are Related. Date of download: 2022.10.25. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/081515/how-inflation-and-unemployment-are-related.asp

Prabawani, B. (2018). Money Illusions: Post Redenomination Shopping Behavior. Economics and Sociology, 11(3), 161-169.

Ransom, R. (2001) “Economics of the Civil War”. EH.Net Encyclopedia, edited by Robert Whaples. Date of download: 2022.11.10. https://eh.net/encyclopedia/the-economics-of-the-civil-war/

Szabó, D. (2014). The ideal monetary system –. https://hold.hu/holdblog/az-idealis-penzrendszer-7-monetaris-szocializmus. Date of download: 2023.02.24.

Szepesi, Gy. (2013). A battle of geniuses (Géniuszok párharca.) Date of download: 2022.10.15. http://unipub.lib.uni-corvinus.hu/1255/1/Kszemle_CIKK_1390.pdf?utm_source=mandiner&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=mandiner_202102

Tukhtabaev, J. S., Bondarskaya, T. A., Tursunov, S. A., Akramova, N. I., Khidirova, B. I., Turaeva, N. O., & Abdullaeva, M. K. (2022, December). The development of the digital economy as a factor in increasing the consumer basket of the population (on the example of the Tambov region). In Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Future Networks & Distributed Systems (pp. 708-716).

Venditti, F. – Žumer, T. – Siena, D. – Stumpner, S. – Parraga, S. – Coimbra, N. – Chiacchio, F. – Carluccio, J. – Balatti, M. (2021). Globalisation and inflation: Insights from the ECB strategy review. Date of download: 2022.11.10. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/globalisation-and-inflation-insights-ecb-strategy-review

Vlandas, Tim, (2016). The Impact of the Elderly on Inflation Rates in Developed Countries LEQS Paper No. 107, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2756584 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2756584

Wu, X., & Xu, J. (2021). Drivers of food price in China: A heterogeneous panel SVAR approach. Agricultural Economics, 52(1), 67-79.

Yoon, J. – Kim, J. – Lee, J. (2014). Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy. Date of download: 2022.10.23. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Impact-of-Demographic-Changes-on-Inflation-and-the-Macroeconomy-42463.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd9754

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2025 Zoltán Sipiczki, Máté Bence Kralovics, Tibor Tatay, József Varga

License URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.