Economic reforms and consumption trends: A deep dive into Saudi Arabia’s economic evolution

Mwahib Mohammed

Article ID: 8935
Vol 8, Issue 13, 2024

VIEWS - 50 (Abstract) 45 (PDF)

Abstract


This study examines the aggregate consumption function of Saudi Arabia from 2000 to 2022, focusing on identifying key determinants of household consumption and evaluating the impacts of disposable income, household wealth, government expenditure, interest rates, and oil revenues. the research uses advanced econometric methods, including the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and Johansen cointegration test, to analyze the relationships among these variables. the findings reveal that disposable income, household wealth, and government expenditure significantly and positively influence consumption, whereas interest rates show a negative correlation. oil revenues also play a critical role, reflecting the country’s economic reliance on oil. the study highlights the necessity for economic diversification to reduce the impact of oil price volatility on household income and consumption stability. The results offer crucial insights for policymakers, emphasizing the need for strategies that enhance household income and wealth, maintain robust public sector spending, and effectively manage interest rates. these findings also support the importance of consistent and predictable income sources for sustaining consumption. additionally, this study suggests directions for future research, including developing sophisticated forecasting models to predict consumption trends and exploring other influencing factors such as demographic shifts and technological progress.


Keywords


aggregate consumption; government spending; oil revenues; interest rates; Saudi Arabia

Full Text:

PDF


References


Ahmad, H. A., Masan, S. (2015). Dynamic relationships between oil revenue, government spending and economic growth in Oman. International Journal of Business. 3(2).

Al Gahtani, G., Bollino, C. A., Bigerna, S., Pierru, A. (2019). Estimating the Household Consumption Function in Saudi Arabia. Available online: https://www. kapsarc. org/research/publications/estimating-the-household-consumption-function-in-saudi-arabia (accessed on 2 June 2024).‏

Al Moneef, M., Hasanov, F. (2020). Fiscal multipliers for Saudi Arabia revisited. King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center. http://doi.org/10.30573/KS--2020-DP21

Al-Banawi, N. (2014). The proportion of expenditure on children to family’s income in Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Business and Economic Development (IJBED), 2(3).‏

Algaeed, A. H. (2017). The Effects of Asymmetric Oil Price Shocks on the Saudi Consumption: An Empirical Investigations. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(1), 99–107.‏

Alkhathlan, K., Javid, M. (2013). Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in Saudi Arabia: An aggregate and disaggregate analysis. Energy policy, 62, 1525–1532.‏

Alkhathlan, K., Javid, M. (2015). Carbon emissions and oil consumption in Saudi Arabia. ELSEVIER, 48, 105–111.‏

Almutairi, N. (2020). The effects of oil price shocks on the macroeconomy: Economic growth and unemployment in Saudi Arabia. OPEC Energy Review, 44(2), 181–204.‏

Alshehry, A. S., Belloumi, M. (2015). Energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth: The case of Saudi Arabia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 41, 237–247.‏

Al-Yousif, Y. K. (2000). Do Government Expenditures Inhibit or Promote Economic Growth: Some Empirical Evidence from Saudi Arabia. The Indian Economic Journal, 48(2), 92–96. https://doi.org/10.1177/0019466220000210

Arezki, R., Blanchard, O. J. (2014). The 2014 oil price slump: Seven key questions. IMFdirect.

Atalla, T. N., Gasim, A. A., Hunt, L. C. (2018). Gasoline demand, pricing policy, and social welfare in Saudi Arabia: A quantitative analysis. Energy policy, 114, 123–133.‏

Auclert, A. (2019). Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel. American Economic Review, 109(6), 2333–2367.

Balcilar, M., Gupta, R., Wang, S., Wohar, M. E. (2020). Oil price uncertainty and movements in the US Government bond risk premia. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 52, 101147.

Bernheim, B. D., Skinner, J., Weinberg, S. (2001). What accounts for the variation in retirement wealth among US households? American Economic Review, 91(4), 832–857.‏

Blazquez, J., Hunt, L. C., Manzano, B., Pierru, A. (2020). The value of saving oil in Saudi Arabia. Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy, 9(1), 207–222.‏

Blazquez, J., Galeotti, M., Manzano, B., Pierru, A., et al. (2020). Analysing the Effects of Saudi Arabia’s Economic Reforms Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model. IDEAS.

Christopher, D., Carroll, M. O., Jirka, S. (2006). How large is the housing wealth effect? a new approach. NBER Working Paper, 12746.

Dack, K., Vasilev, A. (2023). How Do Interest Rates Effect Consumption in the UK? Advances in Business and Management, 77, 67–78.

Eid, A. G. (2015). Budgetary institutions, fiscal policy, and economic growth: The case of Saudi Arabia. Economic Research Forum Working Paper, 965.‏

Frankel, J. A., Schreger, J. (2013). Over-optimistic official forecasts and fiscal rules in the Eurozone. Review of World Economics, 149(2), 247–272.

General Authority for Statistics (2024). Available online: https://www.stats.gov.sa/en (accessed on 2 June 2024).

Hamdi, H., Sbia, R. (2013). Dynamic relationships between oil revenues, government spending and economic growth in an oil-dependent economy. Economic Modelling, 35, 118–125.‏

Haque, M. I., Khan, M. R. (2019). Role of oil production and government expenditure in improving human development index: evidence from Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 9(2), 251–256.

Hasanov, F. (2019). Theoretical Framework for Industrial Electricity Consumption Revisited. Economic literature.

Hasanov, F. J., Alkathiri, N., Alshahrani, S. A., Alyamani, R. (2022). The impact of fiscal policy on non-oil GDP in Saudi Arabia. Applied Economics, 54(7), 793–806.‏

Hemrit, W., Benlagha, N. (2018). The impact of government spending on non-oil-GDP in Saudi Arabia (multiplier analysis). International Journal of Economics and Business Research, 15(3), 350–372.‏

Hviid, S. J., Kuchler, A. (2017 a). Consumption and savings in a low interest-rate environment. Danmarks National bank Working Papers, 116.

Hviid, S. J., Kuchler, A. (2017 b). Consumption and savings in a low interest-rate environment. Danmarks National bank Working Papers, 116.

Jappelli, T., Luigi, P. (2010). The Consumption Response to Income Changes. Annual Review of Economics, 2, 479–506.

Jappelli, T., Padula, M. (2013). Consumption growth, the interest rate, and financial literacy.‏ IDEAS.

Karl, E. C., John, M. Q., Robert, J. S. (2001). Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market. EconPapers, 02138.

Kozlov, R. (2023). The Effect of Interest Rate Changes on Consumption: An Age-Structured Approach. Economies, 11(1), 23.‏

Lettau, M., Ludvigson, S. C. (2004). Understanding trend and cycle in asset values: Reevaluating the wealth effect on consumption. American economic review, 94(1), 276–299

MacKinnon, J. G., Haug, A. A., Michelis, L. (1999). Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration. EconPapers. 14(5), 563–577.

Mahmood, H., Zamil, A. (2019). Oil price and slumps affect personal consumption in Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 9(4), 12–15.‏

Nordström, M. (2020). Consumption and the interest rate–A changing dynamic? Applied Economics, 52(51), 5564–5578,

Mezghani, I., Haddad, H. B. (2017). Energy consumption and economic growth: An empirical study of the electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 75, 145–156.‏

Mikayilov, J., Darandary, A. (2023). Modelling and Projecting Regional Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia. King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.‏

Mohaddes, K., Raissi, M. (2017). Do sovereign wealth funds dampen the negative effects of commodity price volatility? Journal of Commodity Markets, 8, 18–27.

Mohammed, M. G. A. (2024). Analysing GDP Growth Drivers in Saudi Arabia: Investment or Consumption: An Evidence-Based ARDL-Bound Test Approach. Sustainability, 16(9), 3786.‏

Paiella, M., Pistaferri, L. (2017). Decomposing the wealth effect on consumption. Review of Economics and Statistics, 99(4), 710–721.

Ramady, M. A. (2009). External and I’Ternal Determinants of Inflation: A Case Study of Saudi Arabia.‏ Middle East Journal, 63(3), 457–474.

Saudi Central Bank. (n.d.). Available online: https://www.sama.gov.sa/en-us/economicreports/pages/report.aspx?cid=55 (accessed on 24 May 2024).

Sultan, Z. A., Haque, M. I. (2018). Oil exports and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 8(5), 281–287.‏

Walid, M., Syed, J. H. S., Shawkat, H., Khamis, A. K. H. (2017). Asymmetric impacts of public and private investments on the non-oil GDP of Saudi Arabia, International Economics, 156.

Weber, W. E. (1970). The effect of interest rates on aggregate consumption. The American Economic Review, 60(4), 591–600.‏

Yamada, H. (2023). Financial Integration, Excess Consumption Volatility, and the World Real Interest Rate. Available online: https://ideas.repec.org/s/hit/hiasdp.html (accessed on 02 June 2024).




DOI: https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i13.8935

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2024 Mwahib Mohammed

License URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.