Can the European nuclear power industry compete with the Chinese nuclear power industry?
Vol 8, Issue 11, 2024
VIEWS - 40 (Abstract) 6 (PDF)
Abstract
European commissioner for the Internal Market, Thierry Breton, told Le Journal du Dimanche in January 2022, “Existing nuclear plants alone will need 50 billion euros of investment from now until 2030. And new generation ones will need 500 billion”. This paper considers whether these values are realistic. Further, it asks whether these investments would yield an internationally competitive European nuclear power infrastructure given that the nuclear power industries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development member countries have lost global nuclear market share to Russian and Chinese firms since 1995.The paper investigates whether the European nuclear industry even with massive investment can compete with the Chinese nuclear industries. It concludes that the European (in particular, the French) nuclear power industry will be unlikely to be cost competitive with the Chinese nuclear power industry unless financing and new plant orders are immediately forthcoming. To achieve carbon neutrality, the issue becomes whether European Union countries can afford indigenous nuclear technologies or will need to import nuclear power plants from Asia.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
ANS (American Nuclear Society). (2014). Eisenhower’s Atomic Power for Peace III: CAP and Power Demonstration Reactors. Available online: https://www.ans.org/news/article-1537/eisenhowers-atomic-power-for-peace-iii-cap-and-power-demonstration-reactors/ (accessed on 4 February 2021).
Berthélemy, M. & Escobar-Rangel, L. (2015). Nuclear reactors’ construction costs: the role of lead-time, standardization and technological progress. Energy Policy, 82, 118–130. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.03.015
Blix, H. (1996). The peaceful and safe uses of nuclear energy: An address by the IAEA Director General. International Atomic Energy Agency.
Bloomberg. (2021). China’s Climate Goals Hinge on a $440 Billion Nuclear Buildout. Available online:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-11-02/china-climate-goals-hinge-on-440-billion-nuclear-power-plan-to-rival-u-s (accessed on 20 August 2024).
Bloomberg. (2023). China’s Fast and Cheap Nuclear Gives Its Climate Ambitions a Boost. Available online: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023–08–28/china-s-fast-and-cheap-nuclear-gives-its-climate-ambitions-a-boost (accessed on 28 August 2024).
Burt, R. (1978). White House Endorses French Sale of a Nuclear Power Plant to China. The New York Times, 25 November 1978.
David, P. & Rothwell, G.S. (1996). Measuring Standardization: An Application to the American and French Nuclear Power Industries. European Journal of Political Economy, 12, 291–308. https://doi.org/10.1016/0176-2680(95)00018-6
DRC (Development Research Center of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China). (2010). Mechanism and Experiences for Technology Digestion, Absorption and Re-innovation in China’s Railway Equipment Manufacturing Industry. Available online: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/m/drc/2010-07/28/content_22163873.htm (accessed on 25 May 2021).
EC (European Commission). (2024). Commission approves €300 million French State aid measure to support Nuward in researching and developing small modular nuclear reactors. Available online: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_24_2228 (accessed on 11 September 2024).
EDF (Électricité de France). (2020). EDF réajuste le coût du programme Grand Carénage. EDF communiqué de presse, 29 October 2020.
Eurostat. (2022). Electricity production, consumption and market overview. Available online: https://ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_production,_consumption_and_market_overview (accessed on 11 September 2022).
Ezell, S. (2024). How Innovative is China in Nuclear Power. Information Technology & Innovation Foundation.
Gangyang, Z., Xianke, P., Xiaozhen, L., et al. (2021). Research on the standardization strategy of China’s nuclear industry. Energy Policy, 155, 112314. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112314
GIF (Generation IV International Forum). (2007). Cost Estimating Guidelines for Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems. Economic Modeling Working Group
Gröndahl, M.-P. (2022). Il faudra investir 500 milliards d’euros dans les centrales nucléaires de nouvelle génération. Le Journal de Dimanche.
Hernandez, A. (2024). France’s EDF to redraft small modular reactor design amid cost, technology concerns. Reuters.
IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). (2024a). Power Reactor Information System (PRIS). Available online: https://pris.iaea.org/pris/ (accessed on 20 August 2024).
IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). (2024b). Nuclear Power Reactors in the World. Available online: https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/p15748-RDS-2-44_web.pdf (accessed on 20 August 2024).
Koomey, J. & Hultman, N. (2007). A reactor-level analysis of busbar costs for US nuclear plants, 1970–2005. Energy Policy, 35, 5630–5642. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2007.06.005
Lovering, J.R., Yip, A., & Nordhaus, T. (2016). Historical construction costs of global nuclear power reactors. Energy Policy, 91, 371–382. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.01.011
NEA & IAEA (Nuclear Energy Agency & International Atomic Energy Agency). (2018). Measuring Employment Generated by the Nuclear Power Sector. Available online: https://www.oecd-nea.org/jcms/pl_14912/measuring-employment-generated-by-the-nuclear-power-sector?details=true (accessed on 24 March 2019).
NEA (Nuclear Energy Agency). (2015). Nuclear New Build: Insights into Financing and Project Management. Available online: https://www.oecd-nea.org/jcms/pl_14904/nuclear-new-build-insights-into-financing-and-project-management (accessed on 22 October 2015).
NEA (Nuclear Energy Agency). (2016). The Costs of Nuclear Power Plant Decommissioning. Nuclear Development Division, Available online: https://www.oecd-nea.org/jcms/pl_14910/costs-of-decommissioning-nuclear-power-plants?details=true (accessed on 5 February 2016).
NEA (Nuclear Energy Agency). (2024). The NEA Small Modular Reactor Dashboard: Second Edition. Nuclear Technology Development and Economics Division, Available online: https://www.oecd-nea.org/jcms/pl_90816/the-nea-small-modular-reactor-dashboard-second-edition (accessed on 11 September 2024).
NEI (Nuclear Engineering International). (2014). China Reactor Design Evolution. NEI Magazine.
Nicobar Group. (2017). China’s Nuclear Industry 2017–2018: A Tightly Coiled Spring. US Department of Commerce-International Trade Administration.
OECD (Nuclear Energy Agency & International Energy Agency). (2020). Projected Costs of Generating Electricity. Available online: https://www.oecd-nea.org/jcms/pl_51110/projected-costs-of-generating-electricity-2020-edition (accessed on 19 December 2020).
Power Technology. (2020). Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP) Expansion. Power Technology. Available online: https://www.power-technology.com/projects/karachi-nuclear-power-plant-expansion/ (accessed on 25 May 2021).
Rothwell, G.S. (1986). Steam−Electric Scale Economies and Construction Lead Times. California Institute of Technology, Social Science Working. p.627.
Rothwell, G.S. (2003). History Matters: Essays on Economic Growth, Technology, and Demographic Change. Standardization, Diversity, and Learning in China’s Nuclear Power Program. In: Sunstrom, W. A., Guinnane, T. W., Whatley, W. C. (editors). Stanford University Press. 2003; pp. 221–242.
Rothwell, G.S. (2016). Economics of Nuclear Power. Routledge Publishers
Rothwell, G.S. (2021). Spent nuclear fuel storage: What are the relationships between size and cost of the alternatives? Energy Policy, 150, 112126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112126
Rothwell, G.S. (2022). Projected Electricity Costs in International Nuclear Power Markets. Energy Policy, 164, 112905. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112905
RTE (Réseau de Transport d’Électricité). (2021). L’analyse économique: Un chiffrage des coûts des scénarios pour comparer les différentes options de transition. Energy Futures.
SFEN (Société Française d’Energie Nucléaire). 2024. Insights on Flamanville 3 EPR first criticality. Available online: https://www.sfen.org/replay/replay-insights-on-flamanville-3-epr-first-criticality/ (accessed on 11 September 2024).
Stein, A. & Nordhaus, T. (2023). Advanced Nuclear Energy Is in Trouble: NuScale Cancellation Should Be Wake-Up Call for Advocates. The Breakthrough Institute.
US AEC (Atomic Energy Commission) and US DOJ (Department of Justice). (1968). Competition in the Nuclear Power Supply Industry. US Government Printing Office.
Wealer, B., Bauer, S., Landry, N., et al. (2018). Nuclear Power Reactors Worldwide–Technology Developments, Diffusion Patterns, and Country-by-Country Analysis of Implementation (1951–2017). Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
WNA (World Nuclear Association). (2024a). Nuclear Power in France. Available online: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france (accessed on 28 August 2024).
WNA (World Nuclear Association). (2024b). Nuclear Power in China. Available online: https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power.aspx (accessed on 28 August 2024).
Xin, Z. (2024). Nuclear power’s share in energy mix on the rise. China Daily Global. 16 April 2024.
Xu, Q. (2020). Situation and Suggestion of Nuclear Industry Standardization in China. In: Innovative Computing. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering. Springer. pp. 1699–1705.
Yadav, K. K., Pal, U., & Karthikeyan, R. (2023). Concept of accident tolerant fuel in nuclear reactors. Nuclear and Particle Physics Proceedings, 341, 62–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nuclphysbps.2023.09.026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i11.8715
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2024 Geoffrey Rothwell
License URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.