Assessing the impact of climatic factors on the trade performance of South African maize commodity

Buhlebemvelo Dube, Nokuthula Khulu, Lesedi Mokoena, Solly Molepo, Lucas Moswane, Joseph Kau

Article ID: 8497
Vol 1, Issue 1, 2017


Abstract


The maize commodity is of strategic significance to the South African economy as it is a stable commodity and therefore a key factor for food security. In recent times climate change has impacted on the productivity of this commodity and this has impacted trade negatively. This paper explores the intricate relationship between climatic factors and trade performance for the South African maize. Secondary annual time series data spanning 2001 to 2023, was sourced from an abstract from Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD) and World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique was used as an empirical model to assess the long-term and short-term relationships between explanatory variables and the dependent variable. Results of the ARDL model show that, average annual rainfall (β = 2.184, p = 0.056), fertilizer consumption (β = 1.919, p = 0.036), gross value of production (β = 1.279 , p = 0.006) and average annual surface temperature (β = −0.650, p = 0.991) and change in temperature for previous years, (β = −0.650, p = 0.991) and the effects towards coefficient change for export volumes, (β = 0.669, p = 0.0007). In overall, as a recommendation, South African policymakers should consider these findings when developing strategies to mitigate the impacts of some of these climatic factors and implementing adaptive strategies for maize producers.

Keywords


ARDL model; maize; bound test; trade performance; South Africa

Full Text:

PDF


References


Adisa, O. M., Hassen, A., Darkey, D., et al. (2018). Variability of Satelite Derived Phenological Parameters across Maize Producing Areas of South Africa. Available online: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-Map-of-major-maize-producing-Provinces-of-South-Africa-showing-the-Normalised_fig1_326877309 (accessed on 25 September 2024).

Bozzola, M., Lamonaca, E., Santeramo, F. G. (2023). Impacts of climate change on global agri-food trade. Ecological Indicators, 154, 110680. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110680

Bradshaw, C. D., Pope, E., Kay, G., et al. (2022). Unprecedented climate extremes in South Africa and implications for maize production. Environmental Research Letters, 17(8), 084028. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac816d

Department of Environmental Affairs. (2018). South Africa’s third national communication under the united nations framework convention on climate change. Department of Environmental Affairs.

Esterhuizen, D., Caldwell, A. (2023). Grain and Feed Annual. USDA.

Hedlund, J., Carlsen, H., Croft, S., et al. (2022). Impacts of climate change on global food trade networks. Environmental Research Letters, 17(12), 124040. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca68b

ITC. (2024). Trade Map. Available online: https://www.trademap.org/ (accessed on 25 September 2024).

Meuwissen, M. P. M., Feindt, P. H., Spiegel, A., et al. (2019). A framework to assess the resilience of farming systems. Agricultural Systems, 176, 102656. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.102656

Mishra, P., Padhy, C., Mishra, N., Malluri, S. (2024). Role and Approaches of Agricultural Extension in Climate Resilient Agriculture. International Journal of Agriculture Extension and Social Development, 7(5), 343–348. https://doi.org/10.33545/26180723.2024.v7.i5e.629

Mosikari, T. J., Mmelesi, K. (2024). Threshold Effect of Trade on Climate Change in South Africa. Nature Environment and Pollution Technology, 23(1), 435–442. https://doi.org/10.46488/nept.2024.v23i01.038

NAMC. (2024). The NAMC Profile. Available online: https://www.namc.co.za/about-us/profile/ (accessed on 25 September 2024).

Qasim, R., Alam, D. (2023). An Empirical Investigation of India’s Money Demand Function: An ARDL Approach. Research gate, 13.

Shoko, R. R., Chaminuka, P., Belete, A. (2019). Maize yield sensitivity to climate variability in South Africa: Application of the ARDL-ECM approach. Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development, 54(4), 363–371. https://doi.org/10.17306/j.jard.2019.01201

Simanjuntak, C., Gaiser, T., Ahrends, H. E., et al. (2023). Impact of climate extreme events and their causality on maize yield in South Africa. Scientific Reports, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-38921-0

World Bank. (2021). Climate Risk Country Profile: South Africa. World Bank Group.

Zenda, M., Rudolph, M. (2024). A Systematic Review of Agroecology Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change Impacts on Smallholder Crop Farmers’ Livelihoods in South Africa. Climate, 12(3), 33. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12030033




DOI: https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd8497

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) Author(s) 2017

License URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.