Changing direction to value-based foreign policy and its impact on international trade
Vol 8, Issue 12, 2024
VIEWS - 873 (Abstract)
Abstract
Within the last four years, Lithuania has faced different foreign policy challenges due to geopolitical situations such as the Ukraine-Russia war, the migration crisis on the border with Belarus, and the conflict with China. After opening a Taiwanese representative office in Vilnius, China downgraded diplomatic relations with Lithuania. The purpose of the article is to assess the impact of the changes on international economic relations between Lithuania and China. The paper employs descriptive statistics, correlation-regression, sensitivity analysis, and agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis. The research is based on the impact of international economic relations on international trade by analyzing separately imports and exports. Our research fills a gap in international relations and globalization theory by focusing on international collaboration between small and large countries, while the large country implements economic sanctions. In the context of Lithuania, exports to China and imports from China comprise a small percentage in the structure of international trade. Lithuania’s GDP level reacts sensitively to changes in export and import data only if they change drastically (over 50%).
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
- Abendin, S., & Duan, P. (2021). International trade and economic growth in Africa: The role of the digital economy. Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1911767
- Aggestam, K., Bergman Rosamond, A., & Kronsell, A. (2018). Theorising feminist foreign policy. International Relations, 33(1), 23–39. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047117818811892
- Bajo-Rubio, O., & del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, M. (2024). Does international trade promote economic growth? Europe, 19th and 20th centuries. Economic Analysis and Policy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2024.07.019
- Boulesteix, A. L., Ullmann, T., & Hennig, C. (2021). Validation of cluster analysis results on validation data: A systematic framework. WIREs Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery. https://doi.org/10.1002/widm.1444
- Brattberg, E., Le Corre, P. (2020) The EU and China in 2020: More Competition Ahead. Carnagie endowment for international peace. Available online: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2020/02/the-eu-and-china-in-2020-more-competition-ahead?lang=en (accessed on 2 April 2024).
- Broz, J. L., Frieden, J., & Weymouth, S. (2021). Populism in Place: The Economic Geography of the Globalization Backlash. International Organization, 75(2), 464–494. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818320000314
- Buchowski, M. (2006). The Specter of Orientalism in Europe: From Exotic Other to Stigmatized Brother. Anthropological Quarterly, 79(3), 463–482. https://doi.org/10.1353/anq.2006.0032
- Bulley, D. (2013). Foreign Policy as Ethics: Toward a Re-Evaluation of Values. Foreign Policy Analysis, 10(2), 165–180. https://doi.org/10.1111/fpa.12003
- Busilli, V. S., & Jaime, M. B. (2021). Chinese Investments in Brazil: Economic Diplomacy in Bilateral Relations. Contexto Internacional, 43(3), 541–564. https://doi.org/10.1590/s0102-8529.2019430300005
- Chachavalpongpun, P. (2024). Roots of Resilience: Interests and Values in Thai Foreign Policy. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs. https://doi.org/10.1177/18681034241248475
- Chandler, D. (2003). Rhetoric without Responsibility: The Attraction of ‘Ethical’ Foreign Policy. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 5(3), 295–316. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-856x.00108
- Celik, A., Bajja, S., Radoine, H., et al. (2024). Effects of urbanization and international trade on economic growth, productivity, and employment: Case of selected countries in Africa. Heliyon, 10(13), e33539. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e33539
- Crafts, N., & Toniolo, G. (editors). (1996). Economic Growth in Europe since 1945. Cambridge University Press.
- Cuevas García-Dorado, S., Cornselsen, L., Smith, R., et al. (2019). Economic globalization, nutrition and health: a review of quantitative evidence. Globalization and Health, 15(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12992-019-0456-z
- Destradi, S., Plagemann, J., & Taş, H. (2022). Populism and the politicisation of foreign policy. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 24(3), 475–492. https://doi.org/10.1177/13691481221075944
- Duginets, G. and Omran, H. (2022). Assessment of the effectiveness of ukraine’s foreign trade policy with the middle east and africa countries. Access Access to Science Business Innovation in Digital Economy, 3(2), 147-158. https://doi.org/10.46656/access.2022.3.2
- el-Shafei, A. W., & Metawe, M. (2021). China drive toward Africa between arguments of neo-colonialism and mutual-beneficial relationship: Egypt as a case study. Review of Economics and Political Science, 7(2), 137–152. https://doi.org/10.1108/reps-03-2021-0028
- European Commission. (2021). Team Europe increased Official Development Assistance to €66.8 billion as the world’s leading donor in 2020. European Commission.
- Fenko, A. B., & Šabič, Z. (2017). Slovenia’s Foreign Policy Opportunities and Constraints: The Analysis of an Interplay of Foreign Policy Environments. Croatian International Relations Review, 23(79), 41–71. https://doi.org/10.1515/cirr-2017-0014
- Freire, M. R. (2020). Vladimir Putin, Twenty Years On: Russia’s Foreign Policy. Vestnik RUDN. International Relations, 20(3), 449–462. https://doi.org/10.22363/2313-0660-2020-20-3-449-462
- Gilmore, J. (2014). Still a ‘Force for Good’? Good International Citizenship in British Foreign and Security Policy. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 17(1), 106–129. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-856x.12032
- Grygiel, J. (2024). Three Illusions of US Foreign Policy. Orbis, 68(2), 328–347. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orbis.2024.02.011
- Gutmann, J., Neuenkirch, M., & Neumeier, F. (2023). The economic effects of international sanctions: An event study. Journal of Comparative Economics, 51(4), 1214–1231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.05.005
- Gruss, B., & Kebhaj, S. (2019). Commodity Terms of Trade. IMF Working Papers, 19(21), 1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484393857.001
- Hafeezallah, A., Al-Dhamari, A., & Abu-Bakar, S. A. R. (2024). Motion segmentation using Ward’s hierarchical agglomerative clustering for crowd disaster risk mitigation. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 102, 104262. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104262
- Hanania, R., & Trager, R. (2020). The prejudice first model and foreign policy values: racial and religious bias among conservatives and liberals. European Journal of International Relations, 27(1), 204–231. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354066120930801
- Hatipoglu, E., & Peksen, D. (2016). Economic Sanctions and Banking Crises in Target Economies. Defence and Peace Economics, 29(2), 171–189. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2016.1245811
- Jastramskis, M., & Ramonaitė, A. (2022). Lithuania: Political Developments and Data in 2021. European Journal of Political Research Political Data Yearbook, 61(1), 299–306. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1111/2047-8852.12363
- Kertzer, J. D., Powers, K. E., Rathbun, B. C., et al. (2014). Moral Support: How Moral Values Shape Foreign Policy Attitudes. The Journal of Politics, 76(3), 825–840. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022381614000073
- Killian, P. M. E. (2021). Economic Diplomacy as A Subject and Research Agenda: Practical, Conceptual and Methodological Issue. Jurnal Global & Strategis, 15(1), 51. https://doi.org/10.20473/jgs.15.1.2021.51-78
- Kwilinski, A., Dalevska, N., & Dementyev, V. V. (2022). Metatheoretical Issues of the Evolution of the International Political Economy. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(3), 124. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15030124
- Lau, J. (2024). The Future of the Zeitenwende: The False Choice Between Values and Interests. International Politic Quarterly (January). Available online: https://ip-quarterly.com/en/future-zeitenwende-false-choice-between-values-and-interests (accessed on 12 May 2024).
- Lauderdale, P., & Amster, R. (2008). Power and Deviance. Encyclopedia of Violence, Peace, & Conflict, 1696–1703. https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-012373985-8.00143-4
- Lawson, S. (2023). International relations. Cambridge: Polity press
- Li, S. (2020). Determinants of Chinese Direct Investment in Central-East Europe under the Belt and Road Initiative Framework: A Panel Data Analysis. International Journal of Innovation and Economic Development, 6(4), 62–81. https://doi.org/10.18775/ijied.1849-7551-7020.2015.64.2005
- Lo, B. (2020). The Sino-Russian partnership and global order. China International Strategy Review, 2(2), 306–324. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42533-020-00063-7
- Mačikėnaitė, V. (2022). One Country—Two Faces: China’s Turn from an Economic Partner to Security Concern for Lithuania. Rīga Stradiņš University. https://doi.org/10.25143/China-in-the-Baltic-States_2022_ISBN_9789934618154_55-88
- Martuscelli, A. (2019). The economics of China’s engagement with Africa: What is the empirical evidence? Development Policy Review, 38(3), 285–302. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.12456
- Mirkina, I. (2018). FDI and sanctions: An empirical analysis of short- and long-run effects. European Journal of Political Economy, 54, 198–225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.05.008
- Mitsek, S. A. (2015). Model of economic growth, inflation and international trade in Russian Federation. IFAC-PapersOnLine, 48(25), 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2015.11.049
- Morrison-Smith, S., & Ruiz, J. (2020). Challenges and barriers in virtual teams: a literature review. SN Applied Sciences, 2(6). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-020-2801-5
- Neuenkirch, M., & Neumeier, F. (2015). The impact of UN and US economic sanctions on GDP growth. European Journal of Political Economy, 40, 110–125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2015.09.001
- Novelli, M. (2023). Historicising the geopolitics of education and the SDGs: From Western hegemony to a multi-polar world? International Journal of Educational Development, 103, 102925. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijedudev.2023.102925
- Pukšto, A., Karpavičiūtė, I., & Norkevičius, M. (2014). The Dynamics of Lithuanian-Polish Strategic Partnership. Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review, 12(1), 115–149. https://doi.org/10.2478/lasr-2014-0006
- Robinson, S., & Thierfelder, K. (2024). US international trade policy: Scenarios of protectionism and trade wars. Journal of Policy Modeling, 46(4), 723–739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.010
- Rubavičius, V. (2021). Lietuva naujų geopolitinių iššūkių aplinkoje. Nepriklausomybės sąsiuviniai istorijos ir kultūros žurnalas , 58-66.
- Ruggie, J. G. (1982). International regimes, transactions, and change: embedded liberalism in the postwar economic order. International Organization, 36(2), 379–415. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818300018993
- Ruffini, P. B. (2016). International Trade and Foreign Affairs—Some Reflections on Economic Diplomacy. Journal of International Logistics and Trade, 14(1), 3–28. https://doi.org/10.24006/jilt.2016.14.1.3
- Safi, A., Chen, Y., Wahab, S., et al. (2021). Financial Instability and Consumption-based Carbon Emission in E-7 Countries: The Role of Trade and Economic Growth. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 27, 383–391. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2020.10.034
- Salvatore, D. (2023). A simultaneous equations model of the relationship between international trade, and economic growth and development with dynamic policy simulations. Journal of Policy Modeling, 45(4), 789–805. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.06.010
- Schalk, T. M., Fischer, R., Luczak-Roesch, M., et al. (2024). Moral Courage in Foreign Affairs: Analysing 100 Years of Political Thought and Debate. Moral Courage in Foreign Affairs. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/2e3wa
- Szunomár, Á., Karindi, L. and Leonte, A. (2020) Economic relations: A sugar cane, or a sugar-coated stick? In: Empty shell no more: China’s growing footprint in Central and Eastern Europe. Association for International Affairs (AMO), 35-56.
- Tunçer, A. C., & Weller, L. (2022). Democracy, autocracy, and sovereign debt: How polity influenced country risk on the peripheries of the global economy, 1870–1913. Explorations in Economic History, 85, 101449. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2022.101449
- van Ruitenbeek, R. E., Koole, G. M., & Bhulai, S. (2023). A hierarchical agglomerative clustering for product sales forecasting. Decision Analytics Journal, 8, 100318. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dajour.2023.100318
- Wang, X., Zhu, K., Li, Y., et al. (2017). Applicability and prospect of China’s development zone model in Africa. Chinese Geographical Science, 27(6), 860–874. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-017-0918-2
- Wang, M., Wu, Y., Zhang, X., et al. (2024). How does industrial agglomeration affect internal structures of green economy in China? An analysis based on a three-hierarchy meta-frontier DEA and systematic GMM approach. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 206, 123560. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123560
- Wesley, M. (2021). The Challenge of Triangulation: The Impact of China on the Australia‐US Alliance. Australian Journal of Politics & History, 67(3–4), 405–420. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajph.12786
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i12.6738
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2024 Agnė Šimelytė, Artūras Struca, Andriejus Sadauskis
License URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.