Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are vital for infrastructure development in developing countries, integrating private efficiency with public oversight. However, PPP models often face risks, particularly in Indonesia’s water sector, due to its unique geographical and regulatory challenges. This study aims to identify and evaluate risk factors specific to drinking water PPP projects in Indonesia. Using a quantitative approach, structured questionnaires were distributed to experts in the sector, and the data was analyzed using a fuzzy evaluation method. Risks were categorized into location, design and construction, financial, operational, revenue, and political. The study emphasizes that effective risk management, including identification, analysis, and mitigation, is essential for project success. It highlights the importance of stakeholder involvement and flexible risk management strategies. Comprehensive and proactive risk management is key to the success of drinking water infrastructure projects. The research suggests that an integrated and collaborative approach among stakeholders can enhance risk management effectiveness. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, project managers, investors, and other stakeholders, underscoring the necessity for adaptable regulatory frameworks and robust policy guidelines to improve the sustainability and efficacy of future water-related PPPs.

1. Ameyaw, E., & Chan, A. P. C. (2013). Identifying public‐private partnership (PPP) risks in managing water supply projects in Ghana. Journal of Facilities Management, 11(2), 152–182. https://doi.org/10.1108/14725961311314651
2. Ameyaw, E., & Chan, A. P. C. (2015a). Evaluation and ranking of risk factors in public-private partnership water supply projects in developing countries using fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach. Expert Systems with Applications, 42(12), 5102–5116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2015.02.041
3. Ameyaw, E., & Chan, A. P. C. (2015b). Risk allocation in public-private partnership water supply projects in Ghana. Construction Management and Economics, 33(3), 187–208. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2015.1031148
4. Ammar, M., Zayed, T., & Moselhi, O. (2013). Fuzzy-based life-cycle cost model for decision making under subjectivity. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(5), 556–563. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000576
5. Asian Development Bank. (2015). Trial balance private sector financing for road projects in India. Available online: https://www.adb.org/publications/trial-balance-private-sector-financing-road-projects-india (accessed on 2 June 2023).
6. Babatunde, S. O., Adeniyi, O., & Awodele, O. A. (2017). Investigation into the causes of delay in land acquisition for PPP projects in developing countries. Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology, 15(4), 552–570. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEDT-05-2016-0029/FULL/PDF
7. Babatunde, S. O., Perera, S., & Adeniyi, O. (2019). Identification of critical risk factors in public-private partnership project phases in developing countries: A case of Nigeria. Benchmarking, 26(2), 334–355. https://doi.org/10.1108/BIJ-01-2017-0008
8. Bakhtari, A. R., Waris, M. M., Sanin, C., et al. (2021). Evaluating Industry 4.0 Implementation Challenges Using Interpretive Structural Modeling and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process. Cybernetics and Systems, 52(5), 350–378. https://doi.org/10.1080/01969722.2020.1871226
9. Balaji, M., & Arshinder, K. (2016). Modeling the causes of food wastage in Indian perishable food supply chain. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 114, 153–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESCONREC.2016.07.016
10. Bappenas. (2020). Public-Private Partnerships Infrastructure Project Plan In Indonesia 2020. Available online: https://perpustakaan.bappenas.go.id/e-library/file_upload/koleksi/migrasi-data-publikasi/file/Panduan_Perencanaan/PPP%20BOOK%202020%20Kepmen%20PPN%20No%2022%20dan%2061%20Tahun%202020.pdf (accessed on 2 June 2023).
11. Berawi, M. A., Kim, A. A., Naomi, F., et al. (2023). Designing a smart integrated workspace to improve building energy efficiency: an Indonesian case study. International Journal of Construction Management, 23(3). https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2021.1882747
12. Berawi, M. A., Nabila, A., Gunawan, G. et al. (2018). Analysis of life cycle cost and public-private partnership in the development of Walini City as technology park. International Journal of Technology, 9(7), 1469–1479. https://doi.org/10.14716/ijtech.v9i7.2588
13. Bhatt, N., & Sarkar, D. (2020). Evaluation of success and risk factors for highway project performance through integrated analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy interpretive structural modelling. International Journal of Construction Management, 20(6), 653–665. https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2020.1753142
14. Carbonara, N., Costantino, N., & Pellegrino, R. (2016). A transaction costs-based model to choose PPP procurement procedures. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 23(4). https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-07-2014-0099
15. Chan, A. P. C., Lam, P. T. I., Wen, Y., et al. (2015). Cross-Sectional Analysis of Critical Risk Factors for PPP Water Projects in China. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 21(1), 04014031.
16. Chauhan, Y., & Marisetty, V. B. (2019). Do public-private partnerships benefit private sector? Evidence from an emerging market. Research in International Business and Finance, 47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2018.10.002
17. Chen, H., Lu, Y., & Weiss, M. A. (2017). Information Risk and the Cost of Equity Capital Revisited: Evidence from the U.S. Property-Casualty Insurance Industry. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3045472
18. Cheung, E., & Chan, A. P. C. (2011). Risk Factors of Public-Private Partnership Projects in China: Comparison between the Water, Power, and Transportation Sectors. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 137(4), 409–415. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000086
19. Chung, D., Hensher, D. A., & Rose, J. M. (2010). Toward the betterment of risk allocation: Investigating risk perceptions of Australian stakeholder groups to public-private-partnership tollroad projects. Research in Transportation Economics, 30(1). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2010.10.007
20. Comeig, I., Brio, E. B. D., & Fernandez-Blanco, M. O. (2014). Financing successful small business projects. Management Decision, 52(2). https://doi.org/10.1108/MD-01-2012-0051
21. Demirag, I., Khadaroo, I., Stapleton, P., et al. (2012). The diffusion of risks in public private partnership contracts. Accounting, Auditing and Accountability Journal, 25(8), 1317–1339. https://doi.org/10.1108/09513571211275498
22. González-Gómez, F., García-Rubio, M. A., & Guardiola, J. (2012). Urban water service policies and management in Spain: Pending issues. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 28(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2012.640927
23. Gunasekara, N. K., Kazama, S., Yamazaki, D., et al. (2014). Water Conflict Risk due to Water Resource Availability and Unequal Distribution. Water Resources Management, 28(1), 169–184. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0478-x
24. Hassanzadeh, E., Elshorbagy, A., Wheater, H., et al. (2016). A risk-based framework for water resource management under changing water availability, policy options, and irrigation expansion. Advances in Water Resources, 94, 291–306. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.05.018
25. Hodge, G. A. (2004). The risky business of public-private partnerships. Australian Journal of Public Administration, 63(4), 37–49. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8500.2004.00400.x
26. Hora, S. C. (2004). Probability judgments for continuous quantities: Linear combinations and calibration. Management Science, 50(5). https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1040.0205
27. Ibrahim, A. D., Price, A. D. F., & Dainty, A. R. J. (2006). The analysis and allocation of risks in public private partnerships in infrastructure projects in Nigeria. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 11(3), 149–164. https://doi.org/10.1108/13664380680001086
28. Ilbahar, E., Karaşan, A., Cebi, S., et al. (2018). A novel approach to risk assessment for occupational health and safety using Pythagorean fuzzy AHP & fuzzy inference system. Safety Science, 103, 124–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2017.10.025
29. Indonesia Ministry of National Development Planning. (2023). Public private partnership: Infrastructure project plans in Indonesia. Indonesia Ministry of National Development Planning.
30. Javed, A. A., Lam, P. T. I., & Zou, P. X. W. (2013). Output-based specifications for PPP projects: lessons for facilities management from Australia. Journal of Facilities Management, 11(1), 5–30. https://doi.org/10.1108/14725961311301448
31. Ke, Y., Wang, S. Q., & Chan, A. P. C. (2013). Risk Misallocation in Public-Private Partnership Projects in China. International Public Management Journal, 16(3). https://doi.org/10.1080/10967494.2013.825508
32. Kukah, A. S. K., Owusu-Manu, D. G., Badu, E., et al. (2023). Evaluation of risk factors in Ghanaian public-private-partnership (PPP) power projects using fuzzy synthetic evaluation methodology (FSEM). Benchmarking, 30(8). https://doi.org/10.1108/BIJ-09-2021-0533
33. Kumar, N., Kumar, S., Haleem, A., et al. (2013). Implementing lean manufacturing system: ISM approach. Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management, 6(4), 996–1012. https://doi.org/10.3926/jiem.508
34. Kumpel, E., Woelfle-Erskine, C., Ray, I., et al. (2017). Measuring household consumption and waste in unmetered, intermittent piped water systems. Water Resources Research, 53(1). https://doi.org/10.1002/2016wr019702
35. Lam, P. T. I., & Javed, A. A. (2013). Comparative Study on the Use of Output Specifications for Australian and U.K. PPP/PFI Projects. Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities, 29(2), 04014061. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0000554
36. Lam, W. H. K., & Tam, M. L. (1998). Risk Analysis of Traffic and Revenue Forecasts for Road Investment Projects. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)1076-0342(1998)4:1(19)
37. Li, B., Akintoye, A., Edwards, P. J., et al. (2005). Critical success factors for PPP/PFI projects in the UK construction industry. Construction Management and Economics, 23(5). https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190500041537
38. Li, H., Liang, M., Zhang, C., et al. (2022). Risk Evaluation of Water Environmental Treatment PPP Projects Based on the Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multimoora Improved fmea Method. Systems, 10(5), 163. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems10050163
39. Li, J., & Zou, P. X. W. (2011). Fuzzy AHP-based risk assessment methodology for PPP projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(12), 1205–1209. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000362
40. Lima, S., Brochado, A., & Marques, R. C. (2023). Public-Private Partnerships: A Fresh Risk-Based Approach to Water Sector Projects. Infrastructures, 8(6). https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures8060102
41. Malvestio, A. C., Fischer, T. B., & Montaño, M. (2018). The consideration of environmental and social issues in transport policy, plan and programme making in Brazil: A systems analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.11.152
42. Manamgoda, M. G. N., Perera, B. A. K. S., & Perera, C. S. R. (2018). Impact of interest rates of bank loans on road construction: the case of Sri Lanka. Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology, 16(4). https://doi.org/10.1108/JEDT-12-2017-0133
43. Marques, R. C. (2016). PPP arrangements in the Brazilian water sector: A double-edged sword. Water Policy, 18(2). https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2015.115
44. Marques, R. C. (2018). Regulation by contract: Overseeing PPPs. Utilities Policy, 50, 211–214. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2017.10.004
45. Marques, R. C., & Berg, S. (2011). Risks, Contracts, and Private-Sector Participation in Infrastructure. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(11), 925–932. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0000347
46. Meckelburg, R., & Wardana, A. (2024). The political economy of land acquisition for development in the public interest: The case of Indonesia. Land Use Policy, 137, 107017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.107017
47. Moradi Shahdadi, L., Aminnejad, B., Sarvari, H., et al. (2023). Determining the Critical Risk Factors of Implementing Public–Private Partnership in Water and Wastewater Infrastructure Facilities: Perspectives of Private and Public Partners in Iran. Buildings, 13(11). https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings13112735
48. Nguyen, A. T., Nguyen, L. D., Le-Hoai, L., et al. (2015). Quantifying the complexity of transportation projects using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. International Journal of Project Management, 33(6), 1364–1376. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.02.007
49. Nizkorodov, E. (2021). Evaluating risk allocation and project impacts of sustainability-oriented water public–private partnerships in Southern California: A comparative case analysis. World Development, 140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105232
50. Opricovic, S., & Tzeng, G. H. (2004). Compromise solution by MCDM methods: A comparative analysis of VIKOR and TOPSIS. European Journal of Operational Research, 156(2), 445–455. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(03)00020-1
51. Osei-Kyei, R., & Chan, A. P. C. (2017a). Empirical comparison of critical success factors for public-private partnerships in developing and developed countries A case of Ghana and Hong Kong. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 24(6). https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-06-2016-0144
52. Osei-Kyei, R., & Chan, A. P. C. (2017b). Risk assessment in public-private partnership infrastructure projects: Empirical comparison between Ghana and Hong Kong. Construction Innovation, 17(2), 204–223. https://doi.org/10.1108/CI-08-2016-0043
53. Osei-Kyei, R., Chan, A. P. C., & Ameyaw, E. E. (2017). A fuzzy synthetic evaluation analysis of operational management critical success factors for public-private partnership infrastructure projects. Benchmarking, 24(7). https://doi.org/10.1108/BIJ-07-2016-0111
54. Pereira, L. de S., Morais, D. C., & Figueira, J. R. (2020). Using criticality categories to evaluate water distribution networks and improve maintenance management. Sustainable Cities and Society, 61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102308
55. Permatasari, Y. I., Hardjosoekarto, S., & Salomo, R. V. (2020). Institutional Transformation of Public Private Partnership to Ensure Low Transaction Costs: Case Study of Infrastructure Provision at the Ministry of Public Works and Housing of the Republic of Indonesia. Systemic Practice and Action Research, 33(2), 149–165. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11213-019-09485-W/METRICS
56. Pramudya, A. A., & Wibowo, A. (2022). Ranking Risks of BOT Toll Road Investment Projects in Indonesia Using Fuzzy Interpretive Structural Modelling. Construction Economics and Building, 22(4), 59–80. https://doi.org/10.5130/ajceb.v22i4.8091
57. Rafaat, R., Osman, H., Georgy, M., et al. (2020). Preferred risk allocation in Egypt’s water sector PPPs. International Journal of Construction Management , 20(6), 585–597. https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2019.1703087
58. Rahman, H. Z., Miraj, P., Andreas, A., et al. (2022). Research trends, themes and gaps of public private partnership in water sector: a two decade review. In Urban Water Journal, 19(8), 782–797. https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062x.2022.2088393
59. Sarmento, J. M., & Renneboog, L. (2016). Anatomy of public-private partnerships: their creation, financing and renegotiations. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, 9(1), 94–122. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijmpb-03-2015-0023
60. Serag, E., Oloufa, A., Malone, L., et al. (2010). Model for Quantifying the Impact of Change Orders on Project Cost for U.S. Roadwork Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 136(9), 1015–1027. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000206
61. Shaheed, A., Orgill, J., Ratana, C., et al. (2014). Water quality risks of ‘improved’ water sources: evidence from Cambodia. Tropical Medicine & International Health, 19(2), 186–194. https://doi.org/10.1111/TMI.12229
62. Shaheen, S., & Chan, N. (2016). Mobility and the sharing economy: Potential to facilitate the first-and last-mile public transit connections. Built Environment, 42(4), 573–588. https://doi.org/10.2148/benv.42.4.573
63. Shen, L. Y., & Wu, Y. Z. (2005). Risk Concession Model for Build/Operate/Transfer Contract Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 131(2), 211–220. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)0733-9364(2005)131:2(211)
64. Shrestha, A., Chan, T. K., Aibinu, A. A., et al. (2017). Efficient risk transfer in PPP wastewater treatment projects. Utilities Policy, 48, 132–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JUP.2017.03.003
65. Shrestha, A., Chan, T. K., Aibinu, A. A., et al. (2018). Risk Allocation Inefficiencies in Chinese PPP Water Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 144(4), 04018013. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0001457
66. Sohail, M. T., Ehsan, M., Riaz, S., et al. (2022). Investigating the Drinking Water Quality and Associated Health Risks in Metropolis Area of Pakistan. Frontiers in Materials, 9, 864254. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmats.2022.864254
67. Valipour, A., Yahaya, N., Noor, N. M. D., et al. (2019). A Swara-Copras approach to the allocation of risk in water and sewerage public-private partnership projects in Malaysia. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 23(4), 269–283. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2019.8066
68. Walker, D., & Jacobsson, M. (2014). A rationale for alliancing within a public-private partnership. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 21(6), 648–673. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-09-2013-0087
69. Wang, Y., Wang, Y., Wu, X., et al. (2020). Exploring the risk factors of infrastructure PPP projects for sustainable delivery: A social network perspective. Sustainability, 12(10). https://doi.org/10.3390/su12104152
70. Wibowo, A., & Kochendörfer, B. (2005). Financial risk analysis of project finance in Indonesian toll roads. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 131(9), 963–972. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2005)131:9(963)
71. Xu, Y., Yeung, J. F. Y., Chan, A. P. C., et al. (2010). Developing a risk assessment model for PPP projects in China-A fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach. Automation in Construction, 19(7), 929–943. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2010.06.006
72. Yang, M., Chen, H., & Xu, Y. (2020). Stakeholder-Associated Risks and Their Interactions in PPP Projects: Social Network Analysis of a Water Purification and Sewage Treatment Project in China. Advances in Civil Engineering, 2020, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8897196
73. Ye, S., & Tiong, R. K. L. (2000). Government support and risk-return trade-off in China’s BOT power projects. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 7(4), 412–422. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb021163
74. Yescombe, E. R. (2007). Public-private partnerships: Principles of policy and finance. Public-Private Partnerships: Principles of Policy and Finance, 1–350. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-7506-8054-7.X5022-9
75. Zadeh, L. A. (1965). Fuzzy Sets. Information and Control, 8(3), 338–353. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0019-9958(65)90241-X