Time-frequency nexus between remittances, exchange rates, and growth in Vietnam

Hung Van Tran

Article ID: 3718
Vol 8, Issue 5, 2024

VIEWS - 286 (Abstract) 185 (PDF)

Abstract


The significance of remittances to the Vietnamese economy necessitates investigating how they affect the value of the Vietnamese currency and other macroeconomic factors. Macroeconomic articles struggle to discover their impact on economic development, but measured remittances by migrant workers have recently soared. There is no academic study that has examined this phenomenon in Vietnam. This study uses wavelet frameworks to analyze the lead-lag nexus between exchange rates, remittances, and economic growth in Vietnam in time-frequency domains from 1995 to 2020. Overall, we find that: (i) remittances enhance economic growth in the short and medium run; (ii) exchange rates boost remittances in the short and medium run; (iii) exchange rates promote GDP in all frequency and time domains. Moreover, the partial wavelet coherence and multiple wavelet coherence frameworks also offered evidence supporting the wavelet coherence approach. More importantly, the outcomes of wavelet-based Granger causality unveil that there is two-way causality between the selected indicators, which means that all the indicators can predict each other at different frequencies. Our empirical results provide meaningful information for market participants and policymakers.


Keywords


exchange rates; remittances; economic growth; wavelet analysis; Vietnam

Full Text:

PDF


References


Abduvaliev, M., & Bustillo, R. (2019). Impact of remittances on economic growth and poverty reduction amongst CIS countries. Post-Communist Economies, 32(4), 525–546. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2019.1678094

Ale, S. A., Akter, R., & Islam, MD. S. (2018). Remittance Inflow and GDP Growth: Evidence from Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 8(11), 1340–1353. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr.2018.811.1340.1353

Arain, H., Han, L., Sharif, A., & Meo, M. S. (2019). Investigating the effect of inbound tourism on FDI: The importance of quantile estimations. Tourism Economics, 26(4), 682–703. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816619859695

Azizi, S. (2020). Impacts of remittances on financial development. Journal of Economic Studies, 47(3), 467–477. https://doi.org/10.1108/jes-01-2019-0045

Acosta, P. A., Baerg, N. R., & Mandelman, F. S. (2009). Financial development, remittances, and real exchange rate appreciation. Economic Review, 94, 1–12.

Azizi, S. (2021). Impacts of remittances on exchange rates and net export. Global Economy Journal, 21(2). https://doi.org/10.1142/s2194565921500068

Awode, S. S., Akpa, E. O., & Okwu, A. T. (2021). The effect of remittance and volatility in remittances on macroeconomic performance in Africa: any lessons for COVID-19? SN Business & Economics, 1(10). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-021-00138-6

Aliyu, S. U. R. (2009). Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Trade in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1346418

Awad, A., & Sirag, A. (2018). The impact of remittances on Sudan’s economic growth: does the exchange rate matter? International Journal of Social Economics, 45(6), 925–939. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijse-07-2017-0282

Bajra, U. Q. (2021). The interactive effects of remittances on economic growth and inequality in western balkan countries. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 22(3), 757–775. https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2021.14587

Babubudjnauth, A., & Seetanah, B. (2020). An empirical analysis of the impacts of real exchange rate on GDP, manufacturing output and services sector in Mauritius. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 26(2), 1657–1669. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1869

Comes, C. A., Bunduchi, E., Vasile, V., & Stefan, D. (2018). The Impact of Foreign Direct Investments and Remittances on Economic Growth: A Case Study in Central and Eastern Europe. Sustainability, 10(1), 238. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10010238

Chintamani, B. G., & Kulkarni, L. (2023). Determinants and Effects of International Remittances: Evidence from Ratnagiri District of Rural Maharashtra. The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, 66(2), 617–637. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41027-022-00426-1

Carrera, C. M., & Vergara, R. (2012). Fiscal Sustainability: The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Shocks on Debt Valuation, Interest Rates and GDP Growth. World Development, 40(9), 1762–1783. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.04.024

Comunale, M. (2017). Dutch disease, real effective exchange rate misalignments and their effect on GDP growth in EU. Journal of International Money and Finance, 73, 350–370. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.02.012

Das, A., McFarlane, A., & Jung, Y. C. (2019). Remittances and GDP in Jamaica: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration. International Economic Journal, 33(2), 365–381. https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2019.1597144

Dutta, U. P., & Sengupta, P. P. (2018). Remittances and Real Effective Exchange Rate. South Asia Economic Journal, 19(1), 124–136. https://doi.org/10.1177/1391561418761077

Essayyad, M., Palamuleni, M., & Satyal, C. (2018). Remittances and Real Exchange Rates in South Asia: The Case of Nepal. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 8(10), 1226–1238. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr.2018.810.1226.1238

Hoang, T. T., Thi, V. A. N., & Minh, H. D. (2020). The impact of exchange rate on inflation and economic growth in Vietnam. Management Science Letters, 1051–1060. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.msl.2019.11.004

Hussain, I., Hussain, J., Ali Khan, A., & Khan, Y. (2019). An analysis of the asymmetric impact of exchange rate changes on G.D.P. in Pakistan: application of non-linear A.R.D.L. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 32(1), 3100–3117. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677x.2019.1653213

Hanslin Grossmann, S., Lein, S. M., & Schmidt, C. (2016). Exchange rate and foreign GDP elasticities of Swiss exports across sectors and destination countries. Applied Economics, 48(57), 5546–5562. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1181828

Hung, N. T. (2022). Causal relationship between globalization, economic growth and CO2 emissions in Vietnam using Wavelet analysis. Energy & Environment, 0958305X221108498.

Jongwanich, J., & Kohpaiboon, A. (2019). Workers’ Remittances, Capital Inflows, and Economic Growth in Developing Asia and the Pacific. Asian Economic Journal, 33(1), 39–65. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1111/asej.12167

Joof, F., & Touray, S. (2021). The Impact of Remittance Flow on Real Effective Exchange Rate: Empirical Evidence from The Gambia.

Jovic, S., Smigic Miladinovic, J., Micic, R., et al. (2019). Analysing of exchange rate and gross domestic product (GDP) by adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 513, 333–338. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2018.09.009

Kyereme, S. S. (1991). Exchange rate, price, and output inter-relationships in Ghana: evidence from vector autoregressions. Applied Economics, 23(12), 1801–1810. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849100000169

Kumar, R. R., Stauvermann, P. J., Kumar, N. N., & Shahzad, S. J. H. (2017). Revisiting the threshold effect of remittances on total factor productivity growth in South Asia: a study of Bangladesh and India. Applied Economics, 50(26), 2860–2877. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1412074

Mahidud Khan, A., Bin Amin, S., & Ahmed, A. (2021). Nexus among Foreign Exchange Reserve, Remittance and Trade Openness: An Empirical Investigation in the Case of Bangladeshi Economy. Journal of Empirical Studies, 8(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.66.2021.81.1.12

Kuncoro, H. (2020). The role of exchange rate in remittance inflows: Evidence from Indonesia. Economics Bulletin, 40(2), 1508–1521.

Mehedintu, A., Soava, G., & Sterpu, M. (2019). Remittances, Migration and Gross Domestic Product from Romania’s Perspective. Sustainability, 12(1), 212. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12010212

Mohammed, M., & Ahmed, B. (2021). Short-Run and Long-Run Relationships between Economic Growth, Inflation, Exchange Rate and Remittance in Ethiopia: Application of Vector Error Correction Model Approach. East African Journal of Sciences, 15(1), 51–60.

Mundell, Robert (1973a). A Plan for a European Currency. In: The Economics of Common Currencies. London: Allen and Unwin.

Mundell, Robert (1973b). Uncommon Arguments for Common Currencies. In: The Economics of Common Currencies. London: Allen and Unwin.

Mao Takongmo, C. O., & Lebihan, L. (2020). Government Spending, GDP and Exchange Rate in Zero Lower Bound: Measuring Causality at Multiple Horizons. Journal of Quantitative Economics, 19(1), 139–160. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40953-020-00213-z

Mihai, P., Alexandru, M., Catalina, M., & Gabriela-Lidia, T. (2019). The Impact of Remittances on GDP and Household Consumption. An European Union Countries Analysis. Economic Computation And Economic Cybernetics Studies And Research, 53(4/2019), 97–114. https://doi.org/10.24818/18423264/53.4.19.06

Mrabet, Z., & Alsamara, M. (2017). The impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and oil exports on real GDP in Syria: Evidence from the ARDL approach. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 27(3), 333–349. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2017.1389974

Morales-Zumaquero, A., & Sosvilla-Rivero, S. (2015). A contribution to the empirics of convergence in real GDP growth: the role of financial crises and exchange-rate regimes. Applied Economics, 48(23), 2156–2169. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1114581

Mutascu, M., & Sokic, A. (2022). An extended wavelet approach of the money–output link in the United States. Empirical Economics, 64(4), 1647–1665. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-022-02294-6

Olayungbo, D. O., & Quadri, A. (2019). Remittances, financial development and economic growth in sub-Saharan African countries: evidence from a PMG-ARDL approach. Financial Innovation, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-019-0122-8

Olayeni, O. R. (2015). Causality in Continuous Wavelet Transform Without Spectral Matrix Factorization: Theory and Application. Computational Economics, 47(3), 321–340. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-015-9489-4

Pant, B., & Budha, B. B. (2016). Remittances and exchange rate linkages: Experiences of Nepal. Nepal Rastra Bank Working Paper, 33.

Polbin, A., Skrobotov, A., & Zubarev, A. (2019). How the oil price and other factors of real exchange rate dynamics affect real GDP in Russia. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56(15), 3732–3745. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496x.2019.1573667

Rausser, G., Strielkowski, W., Bilan, Y., & Tsevukh, Y. (2018). Migrant remittances and their impact on the economic development of the Baltic states. Geographica Pannonica, 22(3), 165–175. https://doi.org/10.5937/gp22-16988

Rua, A. (2013). Worldwide synchronization since the nineteenth century: a wavelet-based view. Applied Economics Letters, 20(8), 773–776. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2012.744129

Sutradhar, S. R. (2020). The impact of remittances on economic growth in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, 14(1), 275–295. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42495-020-00034-1

Stojanov, R., Němec, D., & Žídek, L. (2019). Evaluation of the Long-Term Stability and Impact of Remittances and Development Aid on Sustainable Economic Growth in Developing Countries. Sustainability, 11(6), 1538. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11061538

Schnabl, G. (2007). Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Small Open Economies at the EMU Periphery. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.997249

Sekmen, F. (2007). Cointegration and causality among foreign direct investment in tourism sector, GDP, and exchange rate volatility in Turkey, The Empirical Economics Letters, 6(1), 53–58.

Sutradhar, S. R. (2020). The impact of remittances on economic growth in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, 14(1), 275–295. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42495-020-00034-1

Thai Hung, N. (2022). Causal relationship between globalization, economic growth and CO2 emissions in Vietnam using Wavelet analysis. Energy & Environment, 34(7), 2386–2412. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305x221108498

Torrence, C., & Webster, P. J. (1999). Interdecadal Changes in the ENSO–Monsoon System. Journal of Climate, 12(8), 2679–2690. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2679:icitem>2.0.co;2

World Bank (2020). Migration and development brief 33. KNOMAD.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i5.3718

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2024 Hung Van Tran

License URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.