Background: Digital transformation in the sports industry has become increasingly crucial for sustainable development, yet comprehensive empirical evidence on policy effectiveness and risk management remains limited. Purpose: This study investigates the impact of policy support and risk factors on digital transformation in sports companies, examining heterogeneous effects across different firm characteristics and regional contexts. Methods: Using panel data from 168 sports companies listed on China’s A-shares markets and the New Third Board from 2019 to 2023, this study employs multiple regression analyses, including baseline models, instrumental variables estimation, and robustness tests. The digital transformation level is measured through a composite index incorporating digital infrastructure, capability, and innovation dimensions. Results: The findings reveal that policy support significantly enhances digital transformation levels (coefficient = 0.238, p < 0.01), while financial risks demonstrate the strongest negative impact (−0.162, p < 0.01). Large firms and state-owned enterprises show stronger responses to policy support (0.312 and 0.278, respectively, p < 0.01). Regional development levels significantly moderate the effectiveness of policy implementation. Conclusions: The study provides empirical evidence for the differential effects of policy support and risk factors on digital transformation across various firm characteristics. The findings suggest the need for differentiated policy approaches considering firm size, ownership structure, and regional development levels. Implications: Policy makers should develop targeted support mechanisms addressing specific challenges faced by different types of firms, while considering regional disparities in digital transformation capabilities.

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