Study on the factors influencing the RMB internationalization—from the perspective of international monetary functions
Vol 9, Issue 1, 2025
Abstract
Since 2022, global geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there has been a notable increase in the international community’s demand for currency diversification. This has created a new opportunity for the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB). This paper examines the factors influencing the internationalization of the RMB, with a particular focus on its role as a unit of account, medium of exchange and store of value. These functions are considered in conjunction with the digital technological innovation represented by e-CNY. The methodology employed is based on the vector autoregression (VAR) model, Granger causality test and variance decomposition analysis. The Granger causality test indicates that digital technology innovation is not the primary driver of RMB internationalization at this juncture. The impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis revealed that the impact and direction of influence exerted by the various factors on RMB internationalization exhibit considerable discrepancies.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
Bank for International Settlements Innovation Hub Hong Kong Centre, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Bank of Thailand, Digital Currency Institute of People’s Bank of China & Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates. (2021a). Inthanon-LionRock to mBridge: building a multi CBDC platform for international payments.
Chinn, M. D., Eichengreen, B., & Ito, H. (2014). A forensic analysis of global imbalances. Oxford Economic Papers, 66(2), 465-490.
Cohen, B. J., & Benney, T. M. (2014). What does the international currency system really look like?. Review of International Political Economy, 21(5), 1017-1041.
Cohen, B., 1971, The Future of Sterling as an International Currency, London:
Deng, H. (2024). Negotiating currency internationalization: An infrastructural analysis of the digital RMB. Finance and Society, 10(1), 1–17. doi:10.2218/fas.2023.2
Dimitriadis, K. A., Koursaros, D., & Savva, C. S. (2024). The influential impacts of international dynamic spillovers in forming investor preferences: a quantile-VAR and GDCC-GARCH perspective. Applied Economics, 1-21.
Eichengreen, B., Macaire, C., Mehl, A., Monnet, E., & Naef, A. (2024). Currency internationalization with Chinese characteristics: Is capital-account convertibility required for the RMB to acquire reserve-currency status? International Finance, 27, 102–128. https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12447
Factors influencing the choice of the invoicing currency in international trade: Panel data analysis for 55 countries. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, doi: 10.24136/eq.2023.005
Fareniuk, N. (2019). The specifics of yuan’s internationalization in the debt financial istruments markets. Аctual Problems of International Relations, (139), 107-114.
Friberg, R., & Wilander, F. (2008). The currency denomination of exports—a questionnaire study. Journal of international economics, 75(1), 54-69.
Fung, Hung-Gay and Tzau, Derrick and Yau, Jot, The Chinese Offshore Renminbi-Denominated Bonds: Dim Sum Bonds (February 1, 2012). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2080636 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2080636
Goldberg, L. S., & Tille, C. (2008). Vehicle currency use in international trade. Journal of international Economics, 76(2), 177-192.
Guo, D., & Zhou, P. (2021). Green bonds as hedging assets before and after COVID: A comparative study between the US and China. Energy Economics, 104, 105696.
Hann-Pyng, Wang. (2022). 2. Current Status of RMB Cross-border Trade Settlement and an Empirical Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Its Scale. doi: 10.2991/aebmr.k.220307.383
Ilias, Filippou., Mark, P., Taylor. (2021). 2. Pricing ethics in the foreign exchange market: Environmental, Social and Governance ratings and currency premia. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, doi: 10.1016/J.JEBO.2021.08.037
Isabelle, Mejean., Victor, Lyonnet., Mustafa, Noman. (2022). 4. Invoicing Currency and Financial Hedging. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12966
Krugman, Paul R. 1984. “The International Role of the Dollar: Theory and Prospect.” In Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, edited by John F.O. Bilson and Richard C. Marston, 261—278. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Lai, E. L.-C. (2021). One Currency, Two Markets: China’s Attempt to Internationalize the Renminbi. Cambridge University Press.
Lai, Edwin L.-C. and Xiangrong Yu. 2015. “Invoicing Currency in International Trade: An Empirical Investigation and Some Implications for the RMB.” The Wold Economy, 38(1), 193-229. 5
Lei, Y. (2024). Impact of RMB internationalization on China’s competitiveness in financial services trade based on the VAR model: Evidence from China-US. Plos one, 19(6), e0302845.
Longmei, Zhang., Hector, Perez-Saiz. (2023). Renminbi Usage in Cross-Border Payments: Regional Patterns and the Role of Swaps Lines and Offshore Clearing Banks. IMF Working Papers, doi: 10.5089/9798400235559.001
Ma, Bin. (2015). A Study on the Influencing Factors of the Internationalization of the Renminbi [D], Dongbei University of Finance and Economics.
Mark, David, Witte., Luigi, Ventura. (2016). 4. An Empirical Examination of the Currency Denomination of Trade. International Economic Journal, doi: 10.1080/10168737.2015.1103771
Oliver, Xie. (2024). 1. Financial Hedging and Optimal Currency of Invoicing. doi: 10.31235/osf.io/v8zdk
Orsi, B., Junior, A. J. A., & de Melo Modenesi, A. (2023). Costs and benefits of currency internationalization: theory and the experience of emerging countries. In Central Banks and Monetary Regimes in Emerging Countries (pp. 1-18). Edward Elgar Publishing.
Panpan, Wang., Xiaoxing, Liu., Sixu, Wu., Tsungwu, Ho., Changqian, Xie. (2024). Measuring the International Influence of the RMB and its Regional Heterogeneity: Theory and Evidence from the Global FX Market Network. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, doi: 10.1080/1540496x.2024.2318313
Papadamou, S., Kyriazis, Ν. A., & Tzeremes, P. G. (2019). Unconventional monetary policy effects on output and inflation: A meta-analysis. International Review of Financial Analysis, 61, 295-305.
Paúl, Krugman. (1980). 1. Vehicle Currencies and the Structure of International Exchange. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, doi: 10.2307/1991725
Qi Jialin. A study of the development and influencing factors of sovereign digital currency[D]. Tianjin University of Commerce, 2022. Available at: https://doi.org/10.27362/d.cnki.gtsxy.2022.000416.
Rob J Hyndman, George Athanasopoulos. (2018). Forecasting: Principles and Practice (2nd). otexts.com
Ryan, Chahrour., Rosen, Valchev. (2017). 2. International Medium of Exchange: Privilege and Duty. Research Papers in Economics,
Song, D. (2017). Bond market exposures to macroeconomic and monetary policy risks. The Review of Financial Studies, 30(8), 2761-2817.
Sun Jixuan. A study of the impact of China’s central bank digital currency on RMB cross-border payments[D]. Southwest University of Finance and Economics, 2021.
The Overconfidence Bias in Finance: How Excessive Data Can Lead to Misguided Decisions. (2023).Alphanome.AI
van der Linden, R.W., Łasak, P. (2023). The Digitalization of Cross-Border Payment Systems and the Introduction of the CBDC. In: Financial Interdependence, Digitalization and Technological Rivalries. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-27845-7_7
Wang Panpan, Wu Sixu and Shi Jianxun. An assessment of the global influence on the process of RMB internationalization and a consideration of future prospects[J]. Financial Research, 2023, 49(2).
Wang Xiaofang, Lu Keji. The reform of the international monetary system and the internationalization of the RMB[J]. The Economist, 1(2), 2023. 45–55.
Wei J, Pak Y. (2023). 1. Enhancing Trade Settlement: A Meta- Analysis and VAR Model Approach to RMB Activation in International Transactions. Journal of Korea Trade, doi: 10.35611/jkt.2023.27.6.81
Weidong, Huo., Fuhua, Deng., Jiandong, Chen. (2018). 3. An empirical analysis of the Renminbi: Exchange rates and cross-border trade settlement. The World Economy, doi: 10.1111/TWEC.12548
Wenzhuo, Jiang., Yun, Fan., Yajie, Wang. (2024). 3. Comparison of Factors Affecting the Internationalization Level of SDR Basket Currencies. doi: 10.62517/jel.202414216
World Bank (2021). “Implementation considerations for fast payment systems.” June.
Wu, Yun-Eun. (2021). Central bank legal tender and RMB internationalization. Modern Business (03), 121-123. doi:10.14097/j.cnki.5392/2021.03.037.
Xiaocun, Qiu., Tianjie, He., Dow, Jones. (2013). 4. Quantifying the prospects and impacts of rmb internationalization.
Xie, Duanchun & Miao, Qihu. (2021). Impact of digital currency on cross-border capital flow management and countermeasures. Hainan Finance (02), 54-60+74.
Yushi, Yoshida., Junko, Shimizu., Takatoshi, Ito., Kiyotaka, Sato., Taiyo, Yoshimi., Uraku, Yoshimoto. (2024). Invoicing Currency Choice: Strategic Complementarities and Currency Matching. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.4852464
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd10304
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2025 Yanling Huang, Kanakarn Phanniphong
License URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.