Variability of climate parameters and food crop yields in Nigeria: A statistical analysis (2010–2023)

Abstract

This study investigated the variability of climate parameters and food crop yields in Nigeria. Data were sourced from secondary sources and analyzed using correlation and multivariate regression. Findings revealed that pineapple was more sensitive to climate variability (76.17%), while maize and groundnut yields were more stable with low sensitivity (0.98 and 1.17%). Yields for crops like pineapple (0.31 kg/ha) were more sensitive to temperature, while maize, beans, groundnut, and vegetable yields were less sensitive to temperature with yields ranging from 0.15 kg/ha, 0.21 kg/ha, 0.18 kg/ha, and 0.12 kg/ha respectively. On the other hand, maize, beans, groundnut, and vegetable yields were more sensitive to rainfall ranging from 0.19kg/ha, 0.15kg/ha, 0.22 kg/ha, and 0.18 kg/ha respectively compared to pineapple yields which decreased with increase rainfall (−0.25 kg/ha). The results further showed that for every degree increase in temperature, maize, pineapple, and beans yields decreased by 0.48, 0.01, and 2.00 units at a 5 % level of significance, while vegetable yield decreased by 0.25 units and an effect was observed. Also, for every unit increase in rainfall, maize, pineapple, groundnut, and vegetable yields decreased by 3815.40, 404.40, 11,398.12, and 2342.32 units respectively at a 5% level, with an observed effect for maize yield. For robustness, these results were confirmed by the generalized additive and the Bayesian linear regression models. This study has been able to quantify the impact of temperature on food crop yields in the African context and employed a novel analytical approach combining the correlation matrix and multivariate linear regression to examine climate-crop yield relationships. The study contributes to the existing body of knowledge on climate-induced risks to food security in Nigeria and provides valuable insights for policymakers, farmers, government, and stakeholders to develop effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on food crop yields through the integration of climate-smart agricultural practices like agroforestry, conservation agriculture, and drought-tolerant varieties into national agricultural policies and programs and invest in climate information dissemination channels to help consider climate variability in agricultural planning and decision-making, thereby enhancing food security in the country.