Sales strategies with a probabilistic business model of an insurance company: The role of updating and targeting

Krisztián Koppány, István Á. Harmati, Dávid Fülep, Norbert Kovács

Article ID: 8803
Vol 8, Issue 16, 2024

VIEWS - 13 (Abstract) 7 (PDF)

Abstract


The major goal of decisions made by a business organization is to enhance business performance. These days, owners, managers and other stakeholders are seeking for opportunities of modelling and automating decisions by analysing the most recent data with the help of artificial intelligence (AI). This study outlines a simple theoretical model framework using internal and external information on current and potential clients and performing calculations followed by immediate updating of contracting probabilities after each sales attempt. This can help increase sales efficiency, revenues, and profits in an easily programmable way and serve as a basis for focusing on the most promising deals customising personal offers of best-selling products for each potential client. The search for new customers is supported by the continuous and systematic collection and analysis of external and internal statistical data, organising them into a unified database, and using a decision support model based on it. As an illustration, the paper presents a fictitious model setup and simulations for an insurance company considering different regions, age groups and genders of clients when analysing probabilities of contracting, average sales and profits per contract. The elements of the model, however, can be generalised or adjusted to any sector. Results show that dynamic targeting strategies based on model calculations and most current information outperform static or non-targeted actions. The process from data to decision-making to improve business performance and the decision itself can be easily algorithmised. The feedback of the results into the model carries the potential for automated self-learning and self-correction. The proposed framework can serve as a basis for a self-sustaining artificial business intelligence system.


Keywords


sales strategy; targeting; insurance; contracting probability; Bayesian updating; artificial intelligence

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References


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd8803

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