The Sub-Saharan African economic burden of violent armed conflict
Article ID: 8113
Vol 9, Issue 4, 2025
Vol 9, Issue 4, 2025
VIEWS - 52 (Abstract)
Abstract
This research examines data from 1989 to 2022 across 48 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using a novel panel data regression approach to uncover how conflict undermines economic stability. The study identifies the destruction of infrastructure, disruption of human capital development, and deterrence of investment as primary channels through which conflict negatively impacts economies. These findings support the hypothesis that armed conflict severely hampers economic performance in SSA, highlighting the urgency for effective conflict resolution strategies and robust institutional frameworks. The negative impacts extend beyond immediate losses, altering income growth trajectories and perpetuating poverty long after hostilities cease. Regional spillover effects emphasize the interconnectedness of SSA economies, where conflict in one country affects its neighbors. The research provides innovative insights by disaggregating impact pathways and employing a robust methodology, revealing the complexity of conflict's economic consequences. It underscores the need for comprehensive policy interventions to foster resilience and sustainable development in conflict-prone regions. While there is evidence of potential post-conflict growth, the overall net effect of armed conflict remains profoundly negative, diminishing economic prospects. Future research should focus on strengthening long-term resilience mechanisms and policy measures to enhance the peace dividend. Addressing the root causes of conflict and investing in peace-building efforts are essential for transforming SSA's economic landscape and ensuring sustainable growth and development.
Keywords
armed conflict; economic growth; Sub-Saharan Africa; infrastructure; investment; human capital
Full Text:
PDFReferences
- World Bank. (2024). Получено 28 April 2024 г., из The World Bank in Africa: https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/overview
- Addy, W. O., HongXing, Y., Otchere, S. K., et al. (2021). Economic Development, Political and Socio-Political Violence Crisis in the Sub-Saharan Africa: An Economic Panel Study. European Journal of Business and Management Research, 6(4), 34–40. https://doi.org/10.24018/ejbmr.2021.6.4.763
- Agbor, M. N., Etta, M. A., & Etonde, H. M. (2022). Effects of armed conflicts on teaching and learning: Perspectives of secondary school teachers in Cameroon. Journal of Education, 86, 1–19. https://doi.org/10.17159/2520-9868/i86a09
- Alfaro, L., Chanda, A., Kalemli-Ozca, S., & Sayek, S. (2004). FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets. Journal of international economics, 89-112 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0022-1996(03)00081-3. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(03)00081-3
- Artadi, E., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (2003). The Economic Tragedy of the XXth Century: Growth in Africa. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w9865
- Aziz, N., & Khalid, U. (2017). Armed Conflict, Military Expenses and FDI Inflow to Developing Countries. Defence and Peace Economics, 30(2), 238–251. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2017.1388066
- Babajide, A. (2018). . Conflict and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. (Doctoral dissertation, Loughborough University).
- Blattman, C., & Miguel, E. (2010). Civil War. Journal of Economic Literature, 48(1), 3–57. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.48.1.3
- Brazys, S., de Soysa, I., & Vadlamannati, K. C. (2023). Blessing or curse? Assessing the local impacts of foreign direct investment on conflict in Africa. Journal of Peace Research, 62(1), 149–165. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231200928
- Cerra, V., & Saxena, S. C. (2008). Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery. American Economic Review, 98(1), 439–457. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.98.1.439
- Clements, B. J., Gupta, S., & Khamidova, S. (2021). Is military spending converging to a low level across countries? Economic Modelling, 94, 433–441. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.10.010
- Collier, P., & Hoeffler, A. (2004). Aid, policy and growth in post-conflict societies. European Economic Review, 48(5), 1125–1145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2003.11.005
- Collier, P. (2004). Greed and grievance in civil war. Oxford Economic Papers, 56(4), 563–595. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpf064
- Breaking the Conflict Trap. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-5481-0
- Crippa, L., & Saaverdra-Lux, L. (2023). Double-edged sword: understanding the localized effect of foreign direct investment inflow in conflict settings. doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/: United Nations University World Institute for Development. https://doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2023/435-9
- d’Agostino, G., Dunne, J. P., & Pieroni, L. (2018). Military Expenditure, Endogeneity and Economic Growth. Defence and Peace Economics, 30(5), 509–524. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2017.1422314
- de Groot, O. J., Bozzoli, C., Alamir, A., et al. (2022). The global economic burden of violent conflict. Journal of Peace Research, 59(2), 259–276. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433211046823
- de Soysa, I. (2019). Does Foreign Direct Investment Encourage State Militarization and Reduce Societal Security? An Empirical Test, 1980–2017. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 26(1). https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2019-0011
- Deger, S. (1986). Economic Development and Defense Expenditure. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 35(1), 179–196. https://doi.org/10.1086/451577
- Dunne, J. P., & Tian, N. (2013). Military expenditure and economic growth: A survey. The Economics of Peace and Security Journal, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.8.1.5
- Fagbemi, F., & Fajingbesi, A. (2022). Political violence: why conflicts can result from sub-Saharan African socioeconomic conditions. Journal of Business and Socio-Economic Development, 2(2), 153–164. https://doi.org/10.1108/jbsed-12-2021-0178
- Fang, X., Kothari, S., McLoughlin, C., et al. (2020). The Economic Consequences of Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. IMF Working Papers, 20(221). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513559667.001
- FEARON, J. D., & LAITIN, D. D. (2003). Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War. American Political Science Review, 97(01), 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055403000534
- Fiandrino, S., Cattuto, C., Paolotti, D., et al. (2023). Combining environmental and socioeconomic data to understand determinants of conflicts in Colombia. Frontiers in Big Data, 6. https://doi.org/10.3389/fdata.2023.1107785
- Frounfelker, R. L., Islam, N., Falcone, J., et al. (2019). Living through war: Mental health of children and youth in conflict-affected areas. International Review of the Red Cross, 101(911), 481–506. https://doi.org/10.1017/s181638312000017x
- Gyimah-Brempong, K., & Corley, M. E. (2005). Civil Wars and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa1. Journal of African Economies, 14(2), 270–311. https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/eji004
- Hegre, H., Nygård, H. M., & Ræder, R. F. (2017). Evaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict trap. Journal of Peace Research, 54(2), 243–261. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316684917
- Jayne, T. S., Fox, L., Fuglie, K., & Adelaja, A. (2021). Agricultural productivity growth, resilience, and economic transformation in sub-Saharan Africa. Association of Public and Land-grant Universities (APLU).
- Khalid, U., Okafor, L. E., & Aziz, N. (2019). Armed conflict, military expenditure and international tourism. Tourism Economics, https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816619851404
- Kim, N., & Conceição, P. (2009). The Economic Crisis, Violent Conflict, and Human Development. International Journal of Peace Studies, 15 DOI:10.2307/41852999.
- Le, T.-H., Bui, M.-T., & Uddin, G. S. (2022). Economic and social impacts of conflict: A cross-country analysis. Economic Modelling, 115, 105980. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105980
- Lessmann, C., & Steinkraus, A. (2019). The geography of natural resources, ethnic inequality and civil conflicts. European Journal of Political Economy, 59, 33–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2019.01.005
- Mayai, A. T. (2022). War and Schooling in South Sudan, 2013-2016. Journal on Education in Emergencies, 8(1), 14. https://doi.org/10.33682/q16e-7ckp
- Musumba, M., Fatema, N., & Kibriya, S. (2021). Prevention Is Better Than Cure: Machine Learning Approach to Conflict Prediction in Sub-Saharan Africa. Sustainability, 13(13), 7366. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137366
- Okunlola, O. C., & Okafor, I. G. (2020). Conflict–Poverty Relationship in Africa: A Disaggregated Approach. Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, 34(1), 104–129. https://doi.org/10.1177/0260107920935726
- Pieroni, L. (2009). MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. Defence and Peace Economics, 20(4), 327–339. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690701589876
- Rahman, T., & Siddiqui, D.A. (2019). The Effect of Military Spending on Economic Growth in the Presence of Arms Trade: A Global Analysis. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3401331
- Sambanis, N. (2001). Do Ethnic and Nonethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes? Journal of Conflict Resolution, 45(3), 259–282. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002701045003001
- Singh, B., Kaur, J., Sen, R. K., et al. (2021). The Double Whammy of Pandemic and War: A Systematic Review of India’s Education Diplomacy to Address Educational Inequities in Afghanistan. Education Sciences, 11(10), 651. https://doi.org/10.3390/educsci11100651
- Sinha, A., & Chakrabarti, B. K. (2019). Inequality in death from social conflicts: A Gini & Kolkata indices-based study. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 527, 121185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.121185
- Tian, N., Lopes da Silva, D., Béraud-Sudreau, L., et al. (2023). Developments in Military Expenditure and the Effects of the War in Ukraine. Defence and Peace Economics, 34(5), 547–562. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2023.2221877
- Ujunwa, A., Okoyeuzu, C., Nkwor, N., et al. (2021). Potential Impact of Climate Change and Armed Conflict on Inequality in Sub‐Saharan Africa. South African Journal of Economics, 89(4), 480–498. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12271
- Wang, M. G., Wong, M. C. S., Zhuang, H., et al. (2024). The Impact of Armed Conflict on Inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): An Analysis of Conflict Over Government, Conflict Over Territory, and FDI. Global Economic Review, 53(1), 25–51. https://doi.org/10.1080/1226508x.2024.2305468
- Żakowska, M. (2020). The roots of armed conflicts: Multilevel security perspective. Security and Defence Quarterly, 30(3), 49–64. https://doi.org/10.35467/sdq/124962
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd8113
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) Author(s) 2025
License URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.





