Alternative evaluation of states’ resilience changes in the context of security: The case of the Baltic States

Agnė Šimelytė, Bahman Peyravi

Article ID: 7702
Vol 8, Issue 15, 2024

VIEWS - 475 (Abstract)

Abstract


Since the external environment on a global level is very unstable, recovering from various unexpected shocks becomes a challenging question for all countries. Thus, for each country it is necessary to understand its weaknesses and threats. Further, the preparation for any level of uncertainty in various fields must be imperative. Even for the most unpredictable shocks such as pandemic, cyberthreat, or even war. The aim of the article is to evaluate the state resilience of the Baltic States by creating the national resilience index. A state’s resilience is based on four pillars: economic, social, good governance, and defence. The methodology is based the SAW method, data has been collected from NATO and Eurostat databases. As the result of the study, resilience index has been estimated for each year from 2015 to 2022. Results revealed vulnerability and problematic areas of each country.


Keywords


state resilience; defence; security; Baltic States; SAW method

Full Text:

PDF


References


Afroogh, S., Esmalian, A., Donaldson, J. P., Mostafavi, A. (2021). Empathic design in engineering education and practice: an approach for achieving inclusive and effective community resilience. Sustainability, 13(7), 4060. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13074060 Aldger, W. N. (2003). Building Resilience to Promote Sustainability. In: IHDP Update 2. pp. 1–3 Atmante, K. (2020). Comprehensive defence in Latvia–rebranding state defence and call for society’s involvement. Journal on Baltic Security, 6(2), 31–45. https://doi.org/10.2478/jobs-2020-0008 Bedi, N., Bishop, M., Hawkins, U. Miller, O., et al. (2014). Linking Resilience and Good Governance: A Literature Review, Anthós, 6(1), 15–49. https://doi.org/10.15760/anthos.2014.15 Bellamy, A. J., Hunt C.T. (2015). Twenty-First Century UN Peace Operations: Protection, Force and the Changing Security Environment. International Affairs 91(6): pp. 1277–1298. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2346.12456 Borzuchowska, M., Kilańska, D., Kozłowski, R., et al. (2023). The effectiveness of healthcare system resilience during the covid-19 pandemic: a case study. Medicina, 59(5), 946. https://doi.org/10.3390/medicina59050946 Boschma, R., Balland P.A., Kogler D. (2015). Relatedness and Technological Change in Cities: The Rise and Fall of Technological Knowledge in the US Metropolitan Areas From 1981 To 2010. Industrial and Corporate Change 24(1). pp. 223–250. https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dtu012 Briguglio, L., Cordina, G., Farrugia, N., Stephanie Vella, S. (2009). “Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements”. Oxford Development Studies 37 (3). pp. 229–247. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600810903089893 Bristow, G. (2018.) Reflections on the Welsh Economy: Remanence, resilience and resourcefulness. Welsh Economic Review 26, 13–20. https://doi.org/10.18573/wer.229 Büyüközkan, G., Mukul, E., Güler, M. (2022). Prioritization of action plans for disaster management using hesitant fuzzy linguistic SAW-COPRAS methods. Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management. https://doi.org/10.46254/eu05.20220515 Cannon, J. P., Paulo, E. P. (2018). Toward a methodology for the system integration of adaptive resilience in armor. Systems Engineering, 22(1), 43–53. https://doi.org/10.1002/sys.21467 Christmann, G., Ibert, O., Kilper, H., Moss, T. (2012). Vulnerability and Resilience from a Socio-Spatial Perspective. Towards a Theoretical Framework. Erkner. = IRS Working Paper 45. www.irs-net.de/download/wp_vulnerability.pdf Colon, C. (2016). Modeling Economic Resilience. Dynamical Systems [math.DS]. Université Paris-Saclay, 2016. English. https://pastel.hal.science/tel-01495705v1/file/58245_COLON_2016_archivage.pdf Craig, R. K. (2020). Resilience theory and wicked problems. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3610420 Dachin, A. (2012). The Industry–a Vulnerable Source of Economic Recovery in Romania. Theoretical and Applied Economics 19(1). pp. 57–66. http://store.ectap.ro/articole/677.pdf Diodato, D., Weterings, A. (2015). The Resilience of Regional Labour Markets to Economic Shocks: Exploring the Role of Interactions among Firms and Workers. Journal of Economic Geography 15 (4). pp. 723–742. https://doi.org./10.1093/jeg/lbu030 Dogru, T., Hanks, L., Courtney S., Line, N., Makarand, M. (2023). The Resilience of the Lodging Industry During the Pandemic: Hotels Vs. Airbnb. International Journal of Hospitality Management 109, 103406. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2022.103406 Doran, J., Fingleton. B. (2018). US Metropolitan Area Resilience: Insights from Dynamic Spatial Panel Estimation. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 50(1). pp. 111–132. https://doi.org/10.1177/0308518X17736067 Ezcurra, R., Ríos, V.O. (2019). Quality of government and regional resilience in the European Union. evidence from the great recession. Papers in Regional Science, 98(3), 1267–1291. https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12417 Folke, C., Carpenter, S. R., Walker, B., Scheffer, M., Chapin, T., and Rockström, J. (2010). Resilience thinking: integrating resilience, adaptability and transformability. Ecology and Society, 15(4). https://doi.org/10.5751/es-03610-150420 Global Firepower. (2024). Military Strength Ranking. https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php Górka, M. (2023). Baltic states cyber security policy: development of digital capabilities in 2017–2022. Stosunki Międzynarodowe–International Relations, 3, 15. https://doi.org/10.12688/stomiedintrelat.17684.1 Güler, M., Mukul, E., and Büyüközkan, G. (2022). Assessment of success factors for ai application in supply chain management with fuzzy SAW-MOORA methods. Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management. https://doi.org/10.46254/eu05.20220517 Hassaballa, A., Salih, A. (2024). Mapping groundwater potential (GWP) in the Al-Ahsa oasis, Eastern Saudi Arabia using data-driven gis techniques. Water, 16(2), 194. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16020194 Hill, E., Clairt, T., Wial, H., Wolman, H., et al. (2012). Economic Shocks and Regional Economic Resilience. Working paper. Berkeley Hilmarsson, H. (2021). Nordic Welfare, Baltics Austerity and Covid-19. Review of International Comparative Management 22(4). p.p.542–554. https://www.rmci.ase.ro/no22vol4/10.pdf Jnitova, V., Joiner, K., Efatmaneshnik, M., Chang, E. (2021). Modelling workforce employability pipelines for organisational resilience. International Journal of Engineering Business Management, 13, 184797902110040 Kafol, C., Bregar, A. (2017). Cyber Security–Building a Sustainable Protection In DAAAM international scientific book 2017. https://www.daaam.info/Downloads/Pdfs/science_books_pdfs/2017/Sc_Book_2017–007.pdf Kaykhosravi, S., Abogadil, K., Khan, U. T., and Jadidi, M. A. (2019). The low-impact development demand index: a new approach to identifying locations for lid. Water, 11(11), 2341. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112341 Kilić, J., Jajac, N., Rogulj, K., Mastelić-Ivić, S. (2019). Assessing land fragmentation in planning sustainable urban renewal. Sustainability, 11(9), 2576. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11092576 Kleindl, W., Stoy, P. C., Binford, M. W., Desai, A. R., et al. (2018). Toward a social-ecological theory of forest macrosystems for improved ecosystem management. Forests, 9(4), 200. https://doi.org/10.3390/f9040200 Kufčák, J. (2015). Czech Defense Policy in 2015: NATO’s Framework Nation Concept and V4 Defense Cooperation. Policy paper. https://www.amo.cz/en/czech-republic-in-nato-debate-on-defense-and-security-policy/czech-defense-policy-in-2015-natos-framework-nation-concept-and-v4-defense-cooperation-2/ Kullenberg, G. (2002). Regional Co-Development and Security: a Comprehensive Approach. Ocean & Coastal Management 45(11–12), 761–776, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0964-5691(02)00105-9 Ligus, M., Peternek, P. (2022). Evaluation of selected methods for the construction of sustainable energy development index: application for European Union member states. European Research Studies Journal, XXV(Issue 1), 184–197. https://doi.org/10.35808/ersj/2836 Martin, R. (2012). Regional Economic Resilience, Hysteresis and Recessionary Shocks. Journal of Economic Geography 12 (1), 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbr01 Martin, R., Sunley, P. (2015). On the Notion of Regional Economic Resilience: Conceptualization and Explanation. Journal of Economic Geography 15 (1), 1–42. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbu015 Mayar, K., Carmichael, D. G., Shen, X. (2022). Resilience and systems—a review. Sustainability, 14(14), 8327. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14148327 Metushaj, M. (2018). Western Balkans, Some Reflections on the Geopolitical Dynamics of the Great Powers. Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies 7(3), 139–146. https://doi.org/10.2478/ajis-2018-0065 Mitchell, N., McCauley, M., O’Brien, D., Wilson, C. (2022). Mental health and resilience in the Irish defence forces during the covid-19 global pandemic. Military Psychology, 35(5), 383–393. https://doi.org/10.1080/08995605.2021.2007728 NATO. (2023). Defence expenditures and NATO’s 2% guideline. 2 December 2023. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49198.htm Neubauer, J., Odehnal, J. (2018). ARDL models of Military Spending and its Security and Economic Determinants. Challenges to National Defence in Contemporary Geopolitical Situation, 1, 109–114. https://doi.org/10.47459/cndcgs.2018.16 Obuobi-Donkor, G., Eboreime, E., Shalaby, R., Agyapong, B. et al. (2022). Evaluating Community Resilience and Associated Factors One Year after the Catastrophic Fort McMurray Flood. International Journala of Environment Research and Public Health, 16153. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192316153 OECD. (2021). Strengthening Economic Resilience Following the COVID-19 Crisis: A Firm and Industry Perspective. https://www.oecd.org/economy/growth/42504164.pdf O’Grady, N., Shaw, D. (2023). Resilience, responsibility and state abandon: The changing role of the government in emergencies. Political Geography, 100, 102796, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2022.102796 Oliva, S., Lazzeretti, L. (2021). Unravelling the Sustainable Resilient Region: Exploring Regional Resilience in Sustainable Transition. In: Sedita, S.R., Blasi, S. (eds) Rethinking Clusters. Sustainable Development Goals Series. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61923-7_1 Palekienė, O. (2016). Regionų atsparumo ekonominiams šokams vertinimas. [Assessment of regions’ resilience to economic shocks] Daktaro disertacija [Phd thesis]. Kaunas: Technologija Patriarca, R. (2021). Resilience engineering for sociotechnical safety management. Multisystemic Resilience, 477–492. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190095888.003.0025 Plümper, T., Epifanio, M., Neumayer, E. (2014). The Peer-Effect in Counterterrorist Policies”. International Organization 68(01), 211–234. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818313000362 Pollock, K., Steen, R. (2020). Total defence resilience: viable or not during COVID‐19? A comparative study of Norway and the UK. Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy, 12(1), 73–109. https://doi.org/10.1002/rhc3.12207 Raik, K., Šešelgytė, M. (2022). Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The Nations of NATO, 279–299. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780192855534.003.0013 Reyes‐García, V., Balbo, A. L., Gómez-Baggethun, E., Guèze, M., Mesoudi, A., et al. (2016). Multilevel processes and cultural adaptation: examples from past and present small-scale societies. Ecology and Society, 21(4). https://doi.org/10.5751/es-08561-210402 Rose, A., Krausmann, E. (2013). An Economic Framework for the Development of a Resilience Index for Business Recovery. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 5, 73–83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2013.08.003 Sherifi, S., Nagy, K. (2013). Small Countries and Cyber Defence. AARMS–Academic and Applied Research in Military and Public Management Science 12(2), 329–342. https://doi.org/10.32565/aarms.2013.2.14 Simmie, J., Martin, R. (2010). The Economic Resilience of Regions: Towards an Evolutionary Approach. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society 3 (1), 27–43. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsp029 Small, C., Parnell, G. S., Pohl, E. A., Goerger, S. R., et al. (2017). Engineered resilient systems with value focused thinking. INCOSE International Symposium, 27(1), 1371–1385. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.2334-5837.2017.00434.x Stewart, R., Chowdhury, M. (2021). Banking Sector Distress and Economic Growth Resilience: Asymmetric Effects. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 24, e00218, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2021.e00218 Ušiak, J., Trubenová, D. (2020). Challenges for Security and Defence Cooperation in Central Europe: Will the EU Be Able to Manage Crisis in the EU Periphery? UNISCI Journal 18(54). pp. 195–221. https://doi.org/10.31439/UNISCI-102 Usman, J., Mappasere, F., Razak, R. A. (2024). Dynamic governance and creative industrial resilience post-COVID-19 pandemic. KnE Social Sciences, 9(7), 147–161. https://doi.org/10.18502/kss.v9i7.15472 Varey, W. (2011). Viability of psychological panarchy: thought as an ecology. Systems Research and Behavioural Science, 28(5), 509–525. https://doi.org/10.1002/sres.1112 Webb, E., Winkelmann, J., Scarpetti, G., Behmane, D., et al. (2022). Lessons learned from the baltic countries’ response to the first wave of COVID-19. Health Policy, 126(5), 438–445. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2021.12.003 Winkler, K. J., Benessaiah, K., Botzas-Coluni, J., Crockett, E. T. H., et al. (2022). Implications of panarchy for ecosystem service research: the role of system dynamics in service delivery. Ecology and Society, 27(2). https://doi.org/10.5751/es-13254-270243 World bank. (2023). Economy & Growth. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?view=chart Xiao, Y., Drucker, J. (2013). Does Economic Diversity Enhance Regional Disaster Resilience? Journal of the American Planning Association, 79(2), 148–160, https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2013.882125 Zacharia, A., Ahmadani, F., Danianto, P. (2021). National resilience strengthen through the reserve component to resist non-military threats. International Journal of Research -GRANTHAALAYAH, 9(5), 351–359. https://doi.org/10.29121/granthaalayah.v9.i5.2021.3965 Zaman, G., Vasile, V. (2014). Conceptual framework of economic resilience and vulnerability, at national and regional levels. The Romanian Journal of Economics 39(2). pp. 5–18. http://www.revecon.ro/articles/2014-2/2014-2-1.pdf Zdanavičius, L., Statkus, N. (2020). Strengthening Resilience of Lithuania in an Era of Great Power Competition. The Case for Total Defence Journal on Baltic Security, December, 6, 1–21. https://doi.org/10.2478/jobs-2020-0009 Zhang, J., Wang, T. (2023). Urban resilience under the COVID-19 pandemic: A quantitative assessment framework based on system dynamics. Cities 136, 104265, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2023.104265



DOI: https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd7702

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2024 Agnė Šimelytė, Bahman Peyravi

License URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.