Regular domestic air passenger market dynamics: The Brazilian case
Vol 8, Issue 6, 2024
VIEWS - 195 (Abstract) 152 (PDF)
Abstract
Brazil occupies a prominent position as one of the largest domestic air passenger markets globally. In May 2019, OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited (OAG), a renowned global travel data provider, ranked Brazil as the world’s 6th largest domestic market. This study identifies and meticulously analyses statistical trends in how service levels affect passenger demand on domestic air routes in Brazil. To that end, it employs a panel-data gravity model incorporating service as an instrumental variable. The findings confirm the influence of traditional gravity explanatory variables, while also contributing novel insights into the impact of service levels on domestic routes. The analysis reveals that, while factors such as income and distance play a fundamental role in shaping domestic demand, level of service emerges as a crucial determinant on regional connections. Overall, the statistics suggest growing divergences between Brazilian airlines and regional air transport. Accordingly, substantial changes are necessary in both government policies and the services offered by the airline industry in order to harness the full potential of Brazil’s domestic air transport passenger market and foster regional development.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
ACI. (2012). Global Traffic Forecast 2012-2031. Airports Council International, Montreal.
ANAC. (2020). Dados e estatísticas. Agência Nacional de Aviação Civil (ANAC).
ANAC. (2022). Aeródromos. https://www.anac.gov.br/acesso-a-informacao/dados-abertos/areas-de-atuacao/aerodromos
Bendinelli, W. E., & Oliveira, A. V. M. (2015). Econometric modeling of demand at privatized airports: a case study of Confins International Airport, Belo Horizonte (Portuguese). Journal of Transport Literature, 9(2), 20–24. https://doi.org/10.1590/2238-1031.jtl.v9n2a4
Bhadra, D., & Kee, J. (2008). Structure and dynamics of the core US air travel markets: A basic empirical analysis of domestic passenger demand. Journal of Air Transport Management, 14(1), 27–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2007.11.001
Boeing. (2014). Current Market Outlook 2014-2033, Market Analysis: Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Seattle.
Button, K. J., Brugnoli, A., Martini, G. et al. (2015). Connecting African urban areas: airline networks and intra-sub-Saharan trade. Journal of Transport Geography, 42, 84–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2014.11.007
Button, K. J., Martini, G., & Scotti, D. (2015). African Decolonisation and Air Transportation. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 49(4), 626–639.
Croissant, Y., & Millo, G. (2008). Panel Data Econometrics in R: The plm Package. Journal of Statistical Software, 27(2), 1–43. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v027.i02
Das, A. K., Bardhan, A. K., & Fageda, X. (2022). What is driving the passenger demand on new regional air routes in India: A study using the gravity model. Case Studies on Transport Policy, 10(1), 637–646. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2022.01.024
Díaz Olariaga, O., Bolívar, N., Gutiérrez, R. M., et al. (2018). Gravitational analysis of the air transport network. Application to the case of Colombia. Transportation Research Procedia, 33, 51–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2018.10.075
Fernandes, E., & Pacheco, R. R. (2010). The causal relationship between GDP and domestic air passenger traffic in Brazil. Transportation Planning and Technology, 33(7), 569–581. https://doi.org/10.1080/03081060.2010.512217
Fernandes, E., & Pacheco, R. R. (2016). Air Transport in Brazil: a market vision (Portuguese). Elsevier, Rio de Janeiro.
Grosche, T., Rothlauf, F., & Heinzl, A. (2007). Gravity models for airline passenger volume estimation. Journal of Air Transport Management, 13(4), 175–183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2007.02.001
Harmel, C. (2012). Outlook 2031: Airport passenger numbers will ‘more than double’ to 12 billion. Airport World—The Magazine of the Airports Council International. Available online: http://www.airport-world.com/home/item/2022-outlook-2031 (accessed on 1 December 2012).
Hazledine, T. (2009). Border effects for domestic and international Canadian passenger air travel. Journal of Air Transport Management, 15(1), 7–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2008.09.007
Hsiao, C. (1986). Analysis of panel data. Cambridge University Press.
IBGE. (2021). Produto interno bruto dos municípios. IBGE. https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/economicas/contas-nacionais/9088-produto-interno-bruto-dos-municipios.html
Inkinen, T., & Pyyhtiä, M. (2013). Geographical specialization and connectivity of air passenger flows from Northern Europe to Asia and US. Asian Geographer, 30(2), 87–104. https://doi.org/10.1080/10225706.2012.735431
Khadaroo, J., & Seetanah, B. (2008). The role of transport infrastructure in international tourism development: A gravity model approach. Tourism Management, 29(5), 831–840. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.09.005
Klodt, H. (2004). Border Effects in Passenger Air Traffic. Kyklos, 57(4), 519–532. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0023-5962.2004.00267.x
Lohmann, G., & Vianna, C. (2016). Air route suspension: The role of stakeholder engagement and aviation and non-aviation factors. Journal of Air Transport Management 53, 199–210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.03.007
Marazzo, M., Scherre, R., & Fernandes, E. (2010). Air transport demand and economic growth in Brazil: A time series analysis. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 46(2), 261–269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2009.08.008
Matsumoto, H. (2004). International urban systems and air passenger and cargo flows: some calculations. Journal of Air Transport Management, 10(4), 239–247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2004.02.003
Matsumoto, H. (2007). International air network structures and air traffic density of world cities. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 43(3), 269–282. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2006.10.007
Matsumoto, H., & Domae, K. (2019). Assessment of competitive hub status of cities in Europe and Asia from an international air traffic perspective. Journal of Air Transport Management, 78, 88–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2019.01.006
OAG. (2022). Airline frequency and capacity trend statistics: Top 10 biggest domestic markets seats November 2022 v 2021 & 2019. Available online: https://www.oag.com/frequency-capacity-statistics (accessed on 1 November 2022).
SAC. (2015). Regional aviation: Connecting Brazil. Available online: http://www.aviacao.gov.br/noticias/2015/01/programa-de-desenvolvimento-aviacao-regional-quer-democratizar-o-transporte-aereo-no-brasil-1/aviacao-regional-versao-site-v4-final.pdf (accessed on 1 November 2015).
Tsui, W. H. K., & Fung, M. K.Y. (2016). Analysing passenger network changes: The case of Hong Kong. Journal of Air Transport Management, 50, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2015.09.001
World Bank. (2022). World Bank Development indicators. Available online: https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators (accessed on 1 November 2015).
Zhang, Y., & Findlay, C. (2014). Air transport policy and its impacts on passenger traffic and tourist flows. Journal of Air Transport Management, 34, 42–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2013.07.010
Zou, B., & Hansen, M. (2012). Flight delays, capacity investment and social welfare under air transport supply-demand equilibrium. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 46(6), 965–980. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2012.02.015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i6.4908
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2024 Elton Fernandes, Ricardo Rodrigues Pacheco, Erivelton Pires Guedes, Vicente Aprigliano
License URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.