Resilience of socio-ecological and energy systems: Intelligent information technologies for risk assessment of natural and technogenic threats
Vol 8, Issue 7, 2024
VIEWS - 181 (Abstract) 88 (PDF)
Abstract
A method for studying the resilience of energy and socio-ecological systems is considered; it integrates approaches developed at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis and the Melentyev Institute of Energy Systems (MESI) of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The article discusses in detail the methods of using intelligent information technologies, in particular semantic technologies and knowledge engineering (cognitive probabilistic modeling), which the authors propose to use in assessing the risks of natural and man-made threats to the resilience of the energy sector and social and ecological systems. More attention is paid to the study and adaptation of the integral indicator of quality of life, which makes it possible to combine these interdisciplinary studies.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
Afanaseva, O., Bezyukov, O., Pervukhin, D., et al. (2023). Experimental Study Results Processing Method for the Marine Diesel Engines Vibration Activity Caused by the Cylinder-Piston Group Operations. Inventions, 8(3), 71. https://doi.org/10.3390/inventions8030071
Antonov, G. N., Cherkasov, G. N., & Krivoruckij, L. D. (1990). Methods and models for studying the survivability of energy systems. Novosibirsk, Science Publ.
Axelrod, R. (1976). The analysis of cognitive maps. In: Axelrod, R. (editor). Structure of decision. The cognitive maps of political elites. Princeton University Press. p. 5573.
Arefiev, I. B., & Afanaseva, O. V. (2022). Implementation of control and forecasting problems of human-machine complexes on the basis of logic-reflexive modeling. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, 442, 187–197. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-98832-6_17
Babyr N. V., Gabov V. V., Nosov A. A., & Nikiforov A. V. (2024). Features of design and work method of mining module at coal deposits in the Russian Arctic. MIAB. Mining Inf. Anal. Bull., 6, 5–16. https://doi.org/10.25018/0236_1493_2024_6_0_5
Buyanov, V. P., Kirsanov, K. A., & Mikhailov, L. A. (2002). Risk management (Risk Ology). Moscow, Exam.
Bykowa, E., Khaykin, М., Shabaeva, Y., et al. (2023). Development of methodology for economic evaluation of land plots for the extraction and processing of solid minerals. Journal of Mining Institute, 259, 52–67. https://doi.org/10.31897/pmi.2023.6
Cherepovitsyn, A., Tcvetkov, P., & Evseeva, O. (2021). Critical analysis of methodological approaches to assessing sustainability of arctic oil and gas projects. Journal of Mining Institute, 249, 463–479. https://doi.org/10.31897/pmi.2021.3.15
Cimellaro, G. P., Reinhorn, A. M., & Bruneau, M. (2010). Seismic resilience of a hospital system. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 6(1–2), 127–144. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732470802663847
Daria, G., & Massel, A. (2018). Intelligent System for Risk Identification of Cybersecurity Violations in Energy Facility. In: Proceedings of the 2018 3rd Russian-Pacific Conference on Computer Technology and Applications (RPC). https://doi.org/10.1109/rpc.2018.8482229
Davoudi, S. (2012). Resilience: A bridging concept or a dead end? Planning Theory and Practice, 13(2), 299–333.
Dmitrieva, D., Chanysheva, A., & Solovyova, V. (2023). A Conceptual Model for the Sustainable Development of the Arctic’s Mineral Resources Considering Current Global Trends: Future Scenarios, Key Actors, and Recommendations. Resources, 12(6), 63. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources12060063
Fadeev, A. M., Lipina, S. A., & Zaikov, K. S. (2021). Innovative approaches to environmental management in the development of hydrocarbons in the Arctic shelf. The Polar Journal, 11(1), 208–229. https://doi.org/10.1080/2154896x.2021.1889836
Finogenko, I. A., Dyakovich, M. P., & Blokhin, A. A. (2016). The methodology of assessment of health-related quality of life. Tambov university reports. Series: Natural and Technical Sciences, 21(1), 121–130. https://doi.org/10.20310/1810-0198-2016-21-1-121-130
Gaskova, D., & Massel, A. (2019). Semantic modeling of cyber threats in the energy sector using Dynamic Cognitive Maps and Bayesian Belief Network. In: Proceedings of the 7th Scientific Conference on Information Technologies for Intelligent Decision Making Support (ITIDS 2019). https://doi.org/10.2991/itids-19.2019.58
Golovina, E. I., & Grebneva, A. V. (2022). Features of groundwater resources management in the transboundary territories (on the example of the Kaliningrad region). Geology and Mineral Resources of Siberia, 4, 85–94. htpps://doi.org/10.20403/2078-0575-2022-4-85-94
Golovina, E., & Karennik, K. (2021). Modern Trends in the Field of Solving Transboundary Problems in Groundwater Extraction. Resources, 10(10), 107. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources10100107
Golovina, E., Khloponina, V., Tsiglianu, P., et al. (2023). Organizational, Economic and Regulatory Aspects of Groundwater Resources Extraction by Individuals (Case of the Russian Federation). Resources, 12(8), 89. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources12080089
Holling, C. (1996). Engineering resilience versus ecological resilience, engineering within ecological constraints. National Academy Press. pp. 31–43.
Ignatenko, A., & Afanaseva, O. (2023). Application of system analysis methods for the research of mining enterprise activity. In: Proceedings of the 2023 Sixth International Conference of Women in Data Science at Prince Sultan University (WiDS PSU). https://doi.org/10.1109/wids-psu57071.2023.00045
Ilyushin, Y. V. (2022). Development of a Process Control System for the Production of High-Paraffin Oil. Energies, 15(17), 6462. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15176462
Ilyushin, Y. V., & Kapostey, E. I. (2023). Developing a Comprehensive Mathematical Model for Aluminium Production in a Soderberg Electrolyser. Energies, 16(17), 6313. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16176313
Ivanov, A., Kruk, M., & Litvin, V. (2023). Analysis of the hydrodynamic modeling market under the environmental conservation concept. E3S Web of Conferences, 378, 06015. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202337806015
Ivanova, I. J., Saneev, B. G., Tuguzova, T. F., et al. (2016). Renewable energy as one of the ways to reduce the anthropogenic load in the central ecological zone of the Baikal natural territory. Geography and Natural Resources, 3, 86–90. https://doi.org/10.21782/GiPR0206-1619-2016-3(86-90).
Kirsanova, N. Y., & Lenkovets, O. M. (2022). Assessment of accountability in state regulation of Arctic zone of the Russian Federation in current institutional environment. Sever i Rynok: Formirovanie Ekonomicheskogo Poradka, 75(1/2022), 47–57. https://doi.org/10.37614/2220-802x.1.2022.75.004
Kirsanova, N., Lenkovets, O., & Tkacheva, E. (2021). Shadow economy in oil and gas industry as threat to Russia’s economic security: issues and options. In: Proceedings of the 21st SGEM International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference Proceedings 2021. https://doi.org/10.5593/sgem2021/5.1/s21.104
Knight, F. H. (2003). Risk, uncertainty, and profit. Boston, New York, Houghton Mifflin Company.
Komendantova, N., Neumueller, S., & Nkoana, E. (2021). Public attitudes, co-production and polycentric governance in energy policy. Energy Policy, 153, 112241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112241
Korolev, V. J., Bening, V. E., & Shorgin, S. J. (2011). Mathematical foundations of risk theory. FIZMATLIT.
Kruk, M., Semenov, A., Pudovkina, S. (2020). System of indicators allowing to assess the level of public awareness about sequestration technologies in the Russian Federation. STEF92 Technology. https://doi.org/10.5593/sgem2020v/6.2/s12.48
Lebedev, A., & Cherepovitsyn, A. (2024). Waste Management during the Production Drilling Stage in the Oil and Gas Sector: A Feasibility Study. Resources, 13(2), 26. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources13020026
Luebeck, J., & Petrov, D. (2018). Use of Investment Project Implementation Mechanism under Production Sharing Agreement for the Development of Oil and Gas. European research studies journal, 21(1), 650–662. https://doi.org/10.35808/ersj/977
Luebeck, J. V. (2019). Integrated stakeholder analysis in investment project implementation under concession agreements in the region of Russia with mineral and raw material orientation. Available online: https://www.revistaespacios.com/a19v40n32/19403222.html (accessed on 8 January 2024).
Lvov, V. V., & Chitalov, L. S. (2020). Modern trends in the design of comminution processes and equipment for non-ferrous metals ores. Tsvetnye Metally, 20–26. https://doi.org/10.17580/tsm.2020.10.03
Lvov, V. V., Chitalov, L. S., & Lagov, P. B. (2022). Ore hardness properties evaluation based on industrial comminution circuits surveys. Eurasian Mining, 54–57. https://doi.org/10.17580/em.2022.02.13
Makarov, A. A., & Voropay, N. I. (2018). System research in the energy sector: methodology and results. Moscow, INEI RAN.
Martirosyan, A. V., Martirosyan, K. V., Grudyaeva, E. K., & Chernyshev, A. B. (2021). Calculation of the temperature maximum value access time at the observation point. In: Proceedings of the 2021 IEEE Conference of Russian Young Researchers in Electrical and Electronic Engineering (ElConRus); St. Petersburg, Moscow, Russia. pp. 1014–1018, https://doi.org/10.1109/ElConRus51938.2021.9396287
Massel, L. V. (2017). The need for integrating research on critical infrastructures, quality of life and safety. In: Proceedings of the 19th International Workshop on Computer Science and Information Technologies; Germany, Baden-Baden. pp. 140–145.
Massel, L. V., & Komendantova, N. P. (2019). Risk assessment of natural and technogenic threats to resilience of energy, ecology and social systems based on intelligent information technologies. Information and Mathematical Technologies in Science and Management, 4(16), 31–45.
Massel, L. V., Massel, A. G., Komendantova, N. P. (2020). An approach to research on the resilience of energy and ecological systems based on intelligent information technologies. In: Proceedings of the International Scientific Conference “Sustainable Development of the Energy Industry of the Republic of Belarus: State and Prospects”; 1–4 October 2020; Minsk, Belarus. pp. 33–43.
Nan, C., Sansavini, G., & Kroger, W. (2014). Building an integrated metric for quantifying the resilience of interdependent infrastructure systems. In: Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Critical Information Infrastructure Security; 13–15 October 2014; Limassol, Cyprus.
Nevskaya, M. A., Raikhlin, S. M., Vinogradova, V. V., et al. (2023). A Study of Factors Affecting National Energy Efficiency. Energies, 16(13), 5170. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16135170
Nevskaya, M., Seleznev, S., Masloboev, V., et al. (2020). Involving small and medium-sized mining industry businesses in mining waste processing in the Russian Federation. Mineral Economics, 34(1), 81–86. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13563-020-00222-7
Orlov, A. V. (2008). Simulation of investment risks. Risk management, 1, 28–33.
Pashkevich, M. A., & Danilov, A. S. (2023). Ecological security and sustainability. Journal of Mining Institute, 260, 153–154.
Ponomarenko, T., Reshneva, E., & Mosquera Urbano, A. P. (2022). Assessment of Energy Sustainability Issues in the Andean Community: Additional Indicators and Their Interpretation. Energies, 15(3), 1077. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15031077
Pospelov, D. A. (1981). Logic-linguistic model in management systems. Moscow, Energoizdat.
Pyatkova, N. I. (2011). Energy security of Russia: problems and solutions. SB RAS Publishing House.
Radoushinsky, D., Gogolinskiy, K., Dellal, Y., et al. (2023). Actual quality changes in natural resource and gas grid use in prospective hydrogen technology roll-out in the world and Russia. Sustainability, 15, 15059.
Saneev, B. G., Ivanova, I. J., Maisyuk, E. P., et al. (2016). The power generation infrastructure in the central ecological zone of the Baikal natural territory: the environmental impact and ways to mitigate it. Geography and Natural Resources S5, 218–224.
Savelev, V. A., & Bataeva, V. V. (2015). Assessment of the threats impact on regional energy security using elements of risk theory. Irkutsk, MESI SB RAS, 65, 396–404.
Semenova, T., Al-Dirawi, A., & Al-Saadi, T. (2022). Environmental Challenges for Fragile Economies: Adaptation Opportunities on the Examples of the Arctic and Iraq. Agronomy, 12, 2021. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy12092021
Semenova, T., & Martínez Santoyo, J. Y. (2024). Economic Strategy for Developing the Oil Industry in Mexico by Incorporating Environmental Factors. Sustainability, 16, 36. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16010036
Senderov, S. M., Rabchuk, V. I., Pyatkova, N. I., & Vorobyev, S.V. (2017). Ensuring energy security of Russia: Choice of priorities. Novosibirsk, Nauka, 116.
Silich, V. A., & Silich, M. P. (2011). Assessment of threats to the region’s energy security using a “fuzzy” risk map. Irkutsk State TU Bulletin, 34(51), 11–16.
Stroykov, G., Vasilev, Y. N., & Zhukov, O. V. (2021). Basic principles (indicators) for assessing the technical and economic potential of developing Arctic offshore oil and gas fields. Journal of Marine Scienceand Engineering, 9, 1400. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9121400
Trakhtengerts, E. A. (1998). Computer decision support. Moscow, SINTEG. p. 376.
Tsyglianu, P. P., Romasheva, N. V., & Nenko, A. (2023). Conceptual management framework for oil and gas engineering project implementation. Resources, 12, 64. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources1206006
Tsyglianu, P. P., Romasheva, N. V., Fadeeva, M. L., & Petrov, I. V. (2023). Engineering projects in the Russian fuel and energy complex: actual problems, factors and recommendations for development. Ugol’, 3, 45–51. https://doi.org/10.18796/0041-5790-2023-3-45-51
Voropay, N. I. (1991). EES survivability: methodological foundations and research methods. Bulletin of the USSR Academy of Sciences. Energy and transport, 6, 52–59.
Voropay, N. I., Kovalev, G. F., Kucherov, Y. N., et al. (2013). Concept of reliability assurance in the electric power industry. Moscow, Publishing House “Energia”.
Wang, H. (1952). Logic of many-sorted theories. Journal of Symbolic Logic, 17(2), 105–116. https://doi.org/10.2307/2266241
Wang, Y., Chen, C., Wang, J., et al. (2016). Research on Resilience of Power Systems Under Natural Disasters—A Review. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 31(2), 1604–1613. https://doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.2015.2429656
Wang, Z., Nistor, M. S., & Pickl, S. W. (2017). Analysis of the Definitions of Resilience. IFAC-PapersOnLine, 50(1), 10649–10657. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2017.08.1756
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i7.4700
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2024 Lyudmila Massel, Nadejda Komendantova, Aleksei Massel, Anna Tsvetkova, Konstantin Zaikov, Oksana Marinina
License URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.