Dynamic clustering of Asian regionalisms: Empirical testing of United Nations multilateral treaty participation by social network analysis

Abstract

This paper investigates the evolving clustering and historical progression of “Asian regionalisms” concerning their involvement in multilateral treaties deposited in the United Nations system. We employ criteria such as geographic proximity, historical connections, cultural affinities, and economic interdependencies to identify twenty-eight candidate countries from East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Central Asia for this empirical testing. Using a social network analysis approach, we model the network of these twenty-eight Asian state actors alongside 600 major treaties from the United Nations system, identifying clusters among Asian states by assessing similarities in their treaty participation behavior. Specifically, we observe dynamic changes in these clusters across three key historical eras: Post-war reconstruction and transformation (1945–1968), Cold War tensions and global transformations (1969–1989), and post-Cold War era and globalization (1990–present). Employing the Louvain cluster detection algorithm, the results reveal the evolution in cluster numbers and changes in membership status throughout the world timeline. The results also identify the current situation of six distinct Asian clusters based on states’ inclinations to engage or abstain from multilateral treaties across six policy domains. These findings provide a foundation for further research on the trajectories of Asian regionalisms amidst evolving global dynamics and offer insights into potential alliances, cooperation, or conflicts within the region.