Comparative modeling of household electricity consumption in France: Insights from path analysis and classical models

Seyid Abdellahi Ebnou Abdem, Mariem Bounabi, El Bachir Diop, Rida Azmi, Mohammed Hlal, Meriem Adraoui, Imane Serbouti, Jérôme Chenal

Article ID: 10621
Vol 9, Issue 2, 2025


Abstract


Electricity consumption in Europe has risen significantly in recent years, with households being the largest consumers of final electricity. Managing and reducing residential power consumption is critical for achieving efficient and sustainable energy management, conserving financial resources, and mitigating environmental effects. Many studies have used statistical models such as linear, multinomial, ridge, polynomial, and LASSO regression to examine and understand the determinants of residential energy consumption. However, these models are limited to capturing only direct effects among the determinants of household energy consumption. This study addresses these limitations by applying a path analysis model that captures the direct and indirect effects. Numerical and theoretical comparisons that demonstrate its advantages and efficiency are also given. The results show that Sub-metering components associated with specific uses, like cooking or water heating, have significant indirect impacts on global intensity through active power and that the voltage affects negatively the global power (active and reactive) due to the physical and behavioral mechanisms. Our findings provide an in-depth understanding of household electricity power consumption. This will improve forecasting and enable real-time energy management tools, extending to the design of precise energy efficiency policies to achieve SDG 7’s objectives.


Keywords


household power consumption; regression models; residential electricity modeling; path analysis model

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd10621

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