Demographic lag in Saudi Arabia explained

Asharaf Abdul Salam, Abdullah Mazen Alhamoudi

Article ID: 10604
Vol 9, Issue 2, 2025


Abstract


The demography of Saudi Arabia has been discussed many times but its conflict with the theories of transition and associated structural changes is unexplained. This research explains the demographic differentials stated as lag - real from theoretical – separately for the native and total population. This research developed demographic indicators revealing trends and patterns by adopting a secondary data analysis method, utilizing the General Authority for Statistics census data and other online data. The demographic transition of Saudi Arabia is in line with the theoretical contentions of pretransition and transition (early, mid, and late) stages but at definite time intervals. The absolute size, percentage change, and annual growth rate are explanatory for natives and are considered separately. Moreover, the structural population changes reveal transition stages from expansive to near expansive and constricting and stabilizing. Furthermore, broad age groups indicate rapid declines in the percentage of children, rapid increases in young adults, slow increases in older adults, and no changes in older persons. Even the sex ratio of natives is at par with other populations in transition (slightly above 100). Thus, it could be concluded that a demographic transition with structural changes as per theories: flawless growth rates with an expanding demographic dividend. At this juncture, the integration of migrants into society by endorsing family life and enabling social and demographic balance appears as imperative to improving the labor sector, productivity, and the image of the country in the international spheres for comparisons and benchmarking.


Keywords


demographic transition; age structure; broad age groups; median age; sex ratio

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd10604

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