Sujeet Kumar, Shakti Suryavanshi


A trend analysis was performed for historic (1901-2002) climatic variables (Rainfall, Maximum Temperature and Minimum Temperature) of Uttarakhand State located in Northern India. In the serially independent climatic variables, Mann-Kendall test (MK test) was applied to the original sample data. However, in the serially correlated series, prewhitening is utilized before employing the MK test. The results of this study indicated a declining trend of rainfall in monsoon season for seven out of thirteen districts of Uttarakhand state. However, an increasing trend was observed in Haridwar and Udhamsingh Nagar districts for summer season rainfall. For maximum and minimum temperature, a few districts exhibited a declining trend in monsoon season whereas many districts exhibited an increasing trend in winter and summer season. Mountain dominated areas (as Uttarakhand state) are specific ecosystems, distinguished by their diversity, sensitivity and intricacy. Thus the variability of rainfall and temperature has a severe and rapid impact on mountainous ecosystems. Nevertheless, mountains have significant impacts on hydrology, which may further threaten populations living in the mountain areas as well as in adjacent, lowland regions.

Full Text:



Al-Tabbaa, Indrani Pal. Assessing seasonal precipitation trende in indea using Parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques [J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2011, 103(1):1-11.

Anyadike R.N.C. Seasonal and annual rainfall variations over Nigeria [J]. International journal climathology, 1993, 13:567–580.

Basistha, Ashoke Basistha, D. S. Arya and N. K. Goel. Analysis of historical changes in precipitation in the Indian Himalayas [J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2009, 29:555-572.

Burn and Hag Elnur . Detection of hydrologic trends and variability [J]. Hydrology, 2002, 255, 107-122.

Christensen N.S., Andrew W. Wood, Nathalie Voisin, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Richard N. Palmer. The effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin, 2004, 62(1-3), 337-363.

Cruz, R.V., H. Harasawa, M. Lal, S. Wu, Y. Anokhin, B. Punsalmaa, Y. Honda, M. Jafari, C. Li and N. Huu Ninh, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2006.

Drosdowsky W. An analysis of Australian seasonal rainfall anomalies: 1950–1987, II: Temporal variability and teleconnection patterns, International [J]. Climatology,1993, 119(1):51–65.

Epstein J.L. School, family and community partnerships: preparing educators and improving schools Boulder Colorado: west view Press, 2011.

Granger O.E. Secular fluctuations of seasonal precipitation in lowland California [J]. Monthly Weather Review, 1977, 105:386–397.

Hingane L. S., Rupa kumar, K., Ramana Murthy, B. V. Long-term trends of surface air temperature in India [J]. Climatology, 1985, 5: 521-528.

Hirsch. R.M., Slack, J.R., and Smith, R.A. Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data, Water Resources in hydrological series [J]. Hydrology, 1982, 259:254- 271.

Kendall. M.G. Rank Correlation Methods, Charles Griffin, London,1955.

Kothawale. Recent trends in pre-monsoon daily temperature extremes over India [J]. Earth System Science, 2010, 119(1):51–65.

Kumar, K.K., Patwardhan, S.K., Kulkarni, A., Kamala, K., Rao, K. K. and Jones, R. Simulated projections for summer monsoon climate over India by a high-resolution regional climate model (PRECIS), [J] Current Science, 2011,101(3):312-326.

Mann. H.B. Non-parametric tests against trend, [J].Econometrica, 1945, 13: 245-259.

Matalas. N.C. Time series analysis [J] Water Resources Research, 1967, 3: 817–829.

Nicholson, and Palao, I.M. A re-evaluation of rainfall variability in the Sahel, Part I, Characteristics of rainfall fluctuations, International [J]. Climatology, 1993, 13: 371–389.

Ogallo, L. Rainfall variability in Africa, [J]. Monthly Weather Review, 1979, 107:1133–1139.

Rodhe, H., and Virji, H. Trends and periodicities in East African rainfall data [J]. Monthly Weather Review, 1976, 104:307–315.

Sasmita, M. and Mohanty. Global climate change: a cause of concern [J]. National Academy Science Letters, 2009, 32(5):149-156

Sen P.K. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall‟s tau [J]. American Statistical Association, 1968, 63:1379-1389.

Some'e B. S., Ezani, A. and Tabari, H. Spatiotemporal trends and change point of precipitation in Iran [J]. Atmospheric Research, 2012, 113:1–12.

Altizer Sonia, Richard S. Ostfeld, Pieter T. J. Johnson, Susan Kutz, C. Drew Harvell. Climate change and infectious diseases: from evidence to a predictive framework [J]. Natural systems changing in climates change, Review article Science, 2013, 341(6145), 514-519.

Subash. N, AK Sikka, HS Ram Mohan An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall and temperature in Central Northeast India – a historical perspective 1889–2008 [J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2011, 103:305–319.

Suryavanshi, S., Pandey, A., Chaube, U.C. and Joshi, N. Long term historic changes in climatic variables of Betwa basin, India [J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2014, 117 (3-4), 403-418.

Theil, H. A rank invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis, Part 3, [J]. Netherlands Akademie van Wettenschappen, 1950, 53:1397-1412.

Türkes Sümer, U.M. and Kiliç, G. Persistence and periodicity in the precipitation series of Turkey and associations with 500 hPa geopotential heights [J]. Climatic Research, 2002, 21: 59-81.

WCDMP-45. World Climate Programme –Water, Detecting Trend and Other Changes in Hydrological Data, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz and Alice Robson (Editors), Genva,United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization, World Meteorological Organization 2006.

WMO. Climatic change. WMO Technical Note 79, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva1966.

Yevjevich, V. Stochastic Processes in Hydrology, Water Resources Publications, Fort Collins, CO, 1971.

Yue S., Pilon, P. and Cavadias, G. Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho test for detecting monotonic trends 2002, [J.] Hydrology, 259:254- 271



  • There are currently no refbacks.

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Creative Commons License

This site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.