Empirical Analysis of Claims Development Trapezoids following Benford’s Law

Jochen Heberle, Tobias Gummersbach

Article ID: 420
Vol 3, Issue 1, 2020

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In this paper we make an empirical analysis of a wide range of claims development trapezoids following Benford’s law. In particular we determine Benfors’s law for different characteristic factors depending on claims development triangles/trapezoids. These characteristic factors are the cumulative claims payments, the incremental claims payments and the individual development factors. For each characteristic factor hypothesis testing is done for verifying/rejecting Benford’s law.


Benford-law; claims reserving; run-off triangle/trapezoid; fraud detection

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.24294/fsj.v3i1.420


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