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Incorporating economic indicators and market sentiment effect into US Treasury bond yield prediction with machine learning


 
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1. Title Title of document Incorporating economic indicators and market sentiment effect into US Treasury bond yield prediction with machine learning
 
2. Creator Author's name, affiliation, country Zichao Li; Canoakbit Alliance Inc.; Canada
 
2. Creator Author's name, affiliation, country Bingyang Wang; Emory University; United States
 
2. Creator Author's name, affiliation, country Ying Chen; MyMap.AI Inc.; United States
 
3. Subject Discipline(s)
 
3. Subject Keyword(s) bond; machine learning; recurrent neural networks; long short-term memory; market sentiment
 
4. Description Abstract

Accurate prediction of US Treasury bond yields is crucial for investment strategies and economic policymaking. This paper explores the application of advanced machine learning techniques, specifically Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, in forecasting these yields. By integrating key economic indicators and policy changes, our approach seeks to enhance the precision of yield predictions. Our study demonstrates the superiority of LSTM models over traditional RNNs in capturing the temporal dependencies and complexities inherent in financial data. The inclusion of macroeconomic and policy variables significantly improves the models’ predictive accuracy. This research underscores a pioneering movement for the legacy banking industry to adopt artificial intelligence (AI) in financial market prediction. In addition to considering the conventional economic indicator that drives the fluctuation of the bond market, this paper also optimizes the LSTM to handle situations when rate hike expectations have already been priced-in by market sentiment.

 
5. Publisher Organizing agency, location EnPress Publisher
 
6. Contributor Sponsor(s)
 
7. Date (YYYY-MM-DD) 2024-09-04
 
8. Type Status & genre Peer-reviewed Article
 
8. Type Type
 
9. Format File format PDF
 
10. Identifier Uniform Resource Identifier https://systems.enpress-publisher.com/index.php/jipd/article/view/7671
 
10. Identifier Digital Object Identifier (DOI) https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i9.7671
 
11. Source Title; vol., no. (year) Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development; Vol 8, No 9 (Published)
 
12. Language English=en en
 
14. Coverage Geo-spatial location, chronological period, research sample (gender, age, etc.)
 
15. Rights Copyright and permissions Copyright (c) 2024 Zichao Li, Bingyang Wang, Ying Chen
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/