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Prediction model of factors causing traffic accidents on rural arterial roads: A binary logistic regression approach


 
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1. Title Title of document Prediction model of factors causing traffic accidents on rural arterial roads: A binary logistic regression approach
 
2. Creator Author's name, affiliation, country Novita Sari; Faculty of Engineering, Gadjah Mada University; Polytechnic of Indonesian Land Transport; Indonesia
 
2. Creator Author's name, affiliation, country Siti Malkhamah; Faculty of Engineering, Gadjah Mada University; Indonesia
 
2. Creator Author's name, affiliation, country Latif Budi Suparma; Faculty of Engineering, Gadjah Mada University; Indonesia
 
3. Subject Discipline(s) Civil engineering; transportation
 
3. Subject Keyword(s) arterial road; binary logistic regression; road safety; traffic accident factor
 
3. Subject Subject classification road safety; traffic safety
 
4. Description Abstract

In rural areas, land use activities around primary arterial roads influence the road section’s traffic characteristics. Regulations dictate the design of primary arterial roads to accommodate high speeds. Hence, there is a mix of traffic between high-speed vehicles and vulnerable road users (pedestrians, bicycles, and motorcycles) around the land. As a result, researchers have identified several arterial roads in Indonesia as accident-prone areas. Therefore, to improve the road user’s safety on primary arterial roads, it is necessary to develop models of the influence of various factors on road traffic accidents. This research uses binary logistic regression analysis. The independent variables are carelessness, disorderliness, high speed, horizontal alignment, road width, clear zone, road shoulder width, signs, markings, and land use. Meanwhile, the dependent variable is the frequency of accidents, where the frequency of accidents consists of multi-accident vehicles (MAV) and single-accident vehicles (SAV). This study collects data for a traffic accident prediction model based on collision frequency in accident-prone areas. The results, road shoulder width, and road sign factor all have an impact on the frequency of traffic accidents. According to a realistic risk analysis, MAV and SAV have no risk difference. After validation, this model shows a confidence level of 92%. This demonstrates that the model generates estimations that accurately reflect reality and are applicable to a wider population. This research has the potential to assist engineers in improving road safety on primary arterial roads. In addition, the model can help the government measure the impact of implemented policies and engage the public in traffic accident prevention efforts.

 
5. Publisher Organizing agency, location EnPress Publisher
 
6. Contributor Sponsor(s) Human Resource Development on Transportation Agency (Ministry of Transportation) and the Center for Human Resources Development of Transportation Apparatus (Ministry of Transportation)
 
7. Date (YYYY-MM-DD) 2024-06-25
 
8. Type Status & genre Peer-reviewed Article
 
8. Type Type Binary Logistic Regression
 
9. Format File format PDF
 
10. Identifier Uniform Resource Identifier https://systems.enpress-publisher.com/index.php/jipd/article/view/6692
 
10. Identifier Digital Object Identifier (DOI) https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i6.6692
 
11. Source Title; vol., no. (year) Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development; vol 8, no 6 (published)
 
12. Language English=en en
 
14. Coverage Geo-spatial location, chronological period, research sample (gender, age, etc.) traffic accident data
 
15. Rights Copyright and permissions Copyright (c) 2024 Novita Sari, Siti Malkhamah, Latif Budi Suparma
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/