The macroeconomic impact of oil price volatility and import volumes

Zhipeng Yao, Yujiao Shang, Yuping Shang

Article ID: 2029
Vol 6, Issue 2, 2023

VIEWS - 64 (Abstract) 34 (PDF)

Abstract


Nowadays, oil is not only a necessary energy for industrial development but also an important strategic resource for the international economy. Previously, many factors led to a sharp rise in international crude oil prices. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the influence mechanism between oil price fluctuation and the macroeconomy. In this paper, the VAR model is used to quantitatively analyze the dynamic relationship between oil price, China’s GDP, China’s CPI and oil import volume, and the orthogonal impulse response analysis and Granger causality test are carried out.The results show that China’s crude oil import volume is the granger factor of GDP, that is, the early changes in China’s crude oil import can effectively explain the changes in China’s GDP. China’s CPI and GDP show a short-term inverse response, and the change in the data is more dependent on the data of the previous quarter. Given the above problems, this paper proposes that China should attach importance to the long-term stability of oil exploitation, reserves, and oil market, and maintain the stability of the oil trade market by adjusting macroeconomic and gasoline prices when necessary.

Keywords


Chinese oil market; macroeconomic; VAR model

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.24294/tse.v6i2.2029

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