Monitoring observed changes in warm-days extremes over Turkey

mohsen abbasnia 1, Hüseyin Toros2

Abstract


This study aimed to analyze warm-days changes extracted from daily maximum temperature time-series of 71 stations in Turkey during 1961–2016. First, the trend analysis of warm-days events indicated that the annual count of warm-days occurrences has been significance rising by a rate of 1.4 days per decade over more than 90 percent of the studied stations. Thus, there are consistent patterns in daily warming throughout the study area. The spatial maps showed that the lowest frequency in the minimum annual number of warm-days occurred in western areas by a total number of 21 days and its highest occurred in the eastern area by a total number of 35 days. Moreover, the highest frequency in the mean and minimum annual count of warm-days observed in the northwestern lowlands and their frequency has decreased toward the eastern mountainous. Also, the highest range of differences between the annual count of maximum and minimum values has happened in the eastern regions which are characterized by high elevation and the lower existence of atmospheric humidity. Therefore, a higher moisture content of the atmosphere in lowland coastal stations favors severe warm-days and the increased risk of human health.


Keywords


Maximum temperature; extreme event; warm-days; spatial-temporal analysis; Turkey

Full Text:

PDF

References


Abbasnia M, Tavousi T, Khosravi M. Assessment of future changes in the maximum temperature at selected stations in Iran based on HADCM3 and CGCM3 models. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 2016; 52(4), 371-377. ‏

Abbasnia M, Toros H. Analysis of long-term changes in extreme climatic indices: a case study of the Mediterranean climate, Marmara Region, Turkey. Pure and Applied Geophysics 2018. 1-13. ‏

Casanueva-Vicente A, Rodríguez-Puebla C, Frías-Domínguez MD, et al. Variability of extreme precipitation over Europe and its relationships with teleconnection patterns. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2014; 18:709–725.

Choi G, Collins D, Ren G, et al. Changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation in the Asia‐Pacific Network region, 1955–2007. International Journal of Climatology 2009; 29(13):1906-1925.

IPCC. Climate change 2007; The AR4 Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland 2007

IPCC. Climate change 2013; The Physical Science Basis, The Working Group I Contribution to the UN IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (WG1 AR5) 2013.

Kerr RA. What happened to global warming? Scientists say just wait a bit. Science 2009; 326(5949): 28-29.

Öztopal A. Extreme precipitation climate change scenario evaluation over Turkey. International Journal of Global Warming 2017; 11(4):479-494.

Peterson TC, Manton MJ. Monitoring changes in climate extremes: a tale of international collaboration. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2008; 89(9):1266-1271.

Sensoy S, Turkoglu N, Akcakaya A, et al. Trends in Turkey climate indices from 1960 to 2010. In 6th Atmospheric Science Symposium (ITU), Istanbul 2013; 24-26.

Simolo C, Brunetti M, Maugeri M, et al. Increasingly warm summers in the Euro–Mediterranean zone: mean temperatures and extremes. Regional environmental change 2014; 14(5):1825-1832.

Solomon S (Ed.) Climate change 2007-the physical science basis: Working group I contribution to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC (Vol. 4). Cambridge University Press 2007.

Tayanç M, Karaca M, Yenigün O. Annual and seasonal air temperature trend patterns of climate change and urbanization effects in relation to air pollutants in Turkey. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 1997; 102(D2):1909-1919.

Toros H. Spatio‐temporal variation of daily extreme temperatures over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology 2012; 32(7):1047-1055.

Unal YS, Deniz A, Toros H, et al. Temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation variability for annual, wet, and dry seasons in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology 2012; 32(3):392-405.

Zhang H, Wang Y, Park TW, et al. Quantifying the relationship between extreme air pollution events and extreme weather events. Atmospheric Research 2017; 188:64-79.

Zhang X, Yang F. RClimDex (1.0) User Guide: Climate Research Branch Environment Canada, RClimDex (1.0) User Guide: Climate Research Branch Environment Canada 2004.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24294/nrcr.v1i3.869

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Creative Commons License

This site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.