Effect of capital market on economic growth: An analysis using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach

Abstract

The limits testing method known as ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) examines Nigerian capital market improvement and monetary development. Relevant indicators about the capital market are taken into account during analysis while considering influencing factors as well. This study aims to explore the relationship between the capital market and financial development in Nigeria. The study’s theoretical framework, which is based on the ARDL framework, includes both short- and long-term dynamics. The data used in this analysis was collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the World Bank database, and the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). In this study, the Nigerian All-Share Index, foreign direct investment, currency exchange rates, and inflation rates are the free factors, while the increase in GDP is the dependent factor. Through cointegration analysis using the ARDL framework, it was discovered that in Nigeria there’s a lengthy equilibrium correlation between economic expansion and financial development. The coefficients determined allow for a deeper understanding of how capital market factors affect economic growth over time. Furthermore, utilizing an error correction model derived from the ARDL analysis offers insight into both brief dynamics and modified speed toward reaching a lasting state of balance. By utilizing the ARDL approach, this study adds to the continuing discourse surrounding how capital markets impact growth in Nigeria. Its empirical evidence provides valuable knowledge for policymakers and stakeholders looking to utilize capital markets effectively toward achieving long-lasting economic development within the country.