Crude oil price-exchange rate nexus in Pakistan

Farhat Iqbal, Abdul Raziq

Article ID: 738
Vol 3, Issue 1, 2020

VIEWS - 1161 (Abstract) 450 (PDF)

Abstract


This paper studies the association between price of crude oil and the Pakistani Rupee-US Dollar exchange. Asymmetric power autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (APARCH) model is used to measure the influence of oil price on the nominal exchange rate using daily data of extreme oil price volatility (2006 – 2013). This model is found to fit the data well and the results reveal a high degree of volatility persistence and leverage effect in returns. This study also establishes a positive association between currency exchange rate and oil price. These findings provide insight into the transmission link between the global oil market and exchange rate.


Keywords


APARCH; exchange rate; oil price; volatility clustering.

Full Text:

PDF


References


1. Amano RA, van Norden S. Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate. Journal of International Money and Finance1998; 299–316.

2. Basher SA, Haug AA, Sadorsky P. (2012). Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets. Energy Economics2012; 227–240.

3. Beckmann J, Czudaj R. (2013). Oil prices and effective dollar exchange rate.International Review of Economics and Finance 2013; 621–36.

4. Benassy-Quere A, Mignon V, Penot A. (2007). China and the relationship between the oil price and the dollar. Energy Policy 2007; 5795–57805.

5. Benhmad F. Modelling nonlinear Granger causality between the oil price and U.S. dollar: a wavelet based approach. Economic Mocelling 2012; 1505-1514.

6. Bollerslev T. Generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity.Journal of Econometrics 1986; 307–327.

7. Chen S, Chen H. Oil prices and real exchange rate. Energy Economics 2007; 390–404.

8. Dickey DA, Fuller WA. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of American Statistical Association 1979; 427–431.

9. Ding L, Vo M. (2012). Exchange rates and oil prices: a multivariate stochastic volatility analysis. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 2012; 15–37.

10. Ding Z, Granger CWJ, Engle RF. A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model. Journal of Empirical Finance 1993; 83–106.

11. Engle RF. Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom Inflation. Econometrica 1982; 987–1007.

12. Ghosh S. Examining crude oil price – Exchange rate nexus for India during the period of etreme price volatility. Applied Energy 2011; 1886–1889.

13. Glosten RL, Jagannathan R, Runkle DE. On the relation between the expected value and the volatility on the nominal excess returns on stocks. Journal of Finance 1983; 1779–1801.

14. Golub S. Oil prices and exchange rates.The Economic Journal 1983; 576–593.

15. Hamilton DJ. Oil and the macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of Political Economy 1983; 228–248.

16. Huang Y, Guo F. The role of oil price shocks on China's real exchange rate. China Economic Review 2007; 244–265.

17. Jarque CM, Bera AK. Efficient tests for normality homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals. Economics Letters 1980; 255–259.

18. Krugman RP. Oil and the Dollar. NBER Working Paper 1983; 554.

19. Kutan AM, Wyzan ML. Explaining the real exchange rate in Kazakhstan, 1996-2003: is Kazakhstan vulnerable to the Dutch disease? Economic Systems 2005; 242–255.

20. Kwiatkowski D, Phillips PCB, Schmidt P, et al. Testing the null hypothesis of stationary against the alternative of a unit root. Journal of Econometrics 1992; 159–178.

21. Lizardo RA, Mollick AV. (2010). Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates. Energy Economics 2010; 399–408.

22. Ljung M, Box G. On a measure of lack of fit in time series models. Biometrika 1978; 297–303.

23. Narayan PK, Narayan S, Prasad A. Understanding the oil price exchange rate nexus for the Fiji islands.Energy Economics 2008; 2686–2696.

24. Nelson D. Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset return: A new approach. Econometrica 1991; 347–370.

25. Newey W, Kenneth W. Automatic lag selection incovariance matrix estimation. The Review of Economic Studies 1994; 631–653.

26. Olomola P, Adejumo A. Oil price shocks andmacroeconomic activities in Nigeria. International Resesearch Journalof Finance and Economics 2006; 28–34.

27. Phillips P, Pierre P. (1998). Testing for a unit root in timeseries regressions. Biometrika 1998; 335–346.

28. Prasad A, Narayan PK, Narayan J. (2007). Exploring the oil price and real GDP nexus for a small island economy, the Fiji Islands.Energy Policy 2007; 5795–5805.

29. Rautava J. The role of oil price and exchange rate in Russia’s economy – a cointegration approach. Journal of Comparative Economics 2004; 315–327.

30. Reboredo JC. Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements. Journal of Policy Modelling 2012; 34: 419 – 440.

31. Sadorsky P. The macroeconomic determinants of technologystock price volatility. Review of Financial Economics 2003; 191–205.

32. Schwarz G. Estimating the dimension of a model. Annalsof Statistics 1978; 461–464.

33. Tiwari AK, Dar AB, Bhanja N. Oilprice and exchange rates: A wavelet based analysis for India. EconomicModeling 2013; 414–422.

34. Turhan MI, Sensoy A, Hacihasanoglu E. (2014). Acomparative analysis of the dynamic relationship between oil prices andexchange rates. Journal of International Financial Markets Institutionsand Money 2014; 397–414.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.24294/fsj.v3i1.738

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Creative Commons License

This site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.